• EN

    • -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%

    Does Earnings Beat And Rising Payouts Change The Bull Case For MGIC Investment (MTG)?

    Simply Wall St·12/14/2025 20:18:54
    Listen to the news
    • Earlier this year, MGIC Investment reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share of US$0.83, topping analyst expectations of US$0.74, while also continuing its program of aggressive share repurchases and marking a seventh consecutive annual dividend increase.
    • This combination of earnings outperformance and steadily rising capital returns points to management’s confidence in MGIC’s underlying mortgage insurance franchise and its ability to keep rewarding shareholders over time.
    • Next, we’ll examine how this earnings beat and ongoing shareholder returns program could reshape MGIC Investment’s existing investment narrative.

    This technology could replace computers: discover 27 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.

    MGIC Investment Investment Narrative Recap

    To own MGIC Investment, you need to believe its mortgage insurance franchise can stay resilient even if new policy growth remains muted and housing activity softens. The recent Q3 2025 earnings beat and new 52 week high support the near term catalyst of strong profitability and capital returns, but they do not materially change the key risk around flat insurance in force and constrained new originations.

    The most relevant recent announcement here is MGIC’s ongoing share repurchase activity, which has retired more than 3% of shares in the latest tranche alone. That buyback, paired with seven straight years of dividend increases, reinforces how much of the current story hinges on returning excess capital while core business growth remains limited, and raises questions about how sustainable these high payout levels might be if housing or credit trends turn.

    Yet behind these record highs and rising dividends, one issue investors should be aware of is...

    Read the full narrative on MGIC Investment (it's free!)

    MGIC Investment's narrative projects $1.3 billion revenue and $633.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.8% yearly revenue growth and an earnings decrease of $129.1 million from $762.6 million today.

    Uncover how MGIC Investment's forecasts yield a $27.67 fair value, a 5% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MTG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    MTG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Simply Wall St Community members’ fair value estimates for MGIC range from US$27.67 to US$62.57 across 3 inputs, underlining how far opinions can spread. Set these against the risk of persistently flat insurance in force and constrained originations, and you get very different conclusions about how much current earnings power can support MGIC’s long term performance.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on MGIC Investment - why the stock might be worth just $27.67!

    Build Your Own MGIC Investment Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    Interested In Other Possibilities?

    Right now could be the best entry point. These picks are fresh from our daily scans. Don't delay:

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.