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    How WINREVAIR’s Expanded CHMP-Backed PAH Indication At Merck (MRK) Has Changed Its Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·12/14/2025 20:19:22
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    • Merck recently reported that the European Medicines Agency’s CHMP has recommended expanding WINREVAIR’s pulmonary arterial hypertension indication in Europe to include higher-risk WHO Functional Class II–IV adults, following strong Phase 3 ZENITH data on morbidity and mortality outcomes.
    • This regulatory momentum strengthens WINREVAIR’s position as a differentiated activin signaling inhibitor in a serious disease area, potentially broadening its role as one of Merck’s key growth drivers beyond oncology.
    • We’ll now examine how WINREVAIR’s expanded CHMP-backed indication may influence Merck’s pipeline-led growth narrative and post-KEYTRUDA diversification story.

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    Merck Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Merck, you need to believe its late stage pipeline can offset eventual KEYTRUDA loss of exclusivity while supporting a steady dividend profile. The CHMP backing for WINREVAIR’s broader PAH use reinforces the pipeline led growth story, but it does not change the central near term catalyst of execution on multiple new launches or the key risk that competitors outpace Merck in critical categories.

    Among recent updates, the Saskatchewan funding decision for CAPVAXIVE ties directly into this theme, highlighting how newer vaccines and specialty drugs like WINREVAIR can build more diversified revenue beyond oncology. Together, these launches sit alongside ongoing M&A and R&D as practical tests of whether Merck’s promised “20 plus growth drivers” can meaningfully soften the future KEYTRUDA cliff.

    Yet, despite Merck’s progress with WINREVAIR and CAPVAXIVE, investors still need to be aware of the risk that...

    Read the full narrative on Merck (it's free!)

    Merck's narrative projects $72.0 billion revenue and $24.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.2% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $7.9 billion from $16.4 billion today.

    Uncover how Merck's forecasts yield a $106.62 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MRK 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    MRK 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Twenty six members of the Simply Wall St Community value Merck between US$82 and about US$215, underscoring how far opinions can stretch on future outcomes. Many of these views hinge on whether WINREVAIR and other new therapies truly offset KEYTRUDA’s eventual loss of exclusivity, so it is worth comparing several of these perspectives side by side.

    Explore 26 other fair value estimates on Merck - why the stock might be worth 18% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own Merck Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.