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    Jumia Technologies (NYSE:JMIA): Reassessing Valuation After Strong Black Friday-Driven Growth and 2024 Share Price Surge

    Simply Wall St·12/14/2025 09:17:32
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    Jumia Technologies (NYSE:JMIA) jumped back onto investors radar after reporting a 30% year over year rise in physical goods orders and 35% GMV growth, supported by a standout Black Friday period.

    See our latest analysis for Jumia Technologies.

    That growth update has come after a powerful run, with the share price up roughly 214% year to date and a 1 year total shareholder return of about 181%. This suggests momentum is still very much on Jumia’s side as investors reassess its growth and risk profile.

    If Jumia’s rebound has you rethinking what could rally next, it might be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to spot other high conviction growth stories on your radar.

    Yet with the stock now up more than 200% this year and trading only slightly below analyst targets, is Jumia still mispriced relative to its long term potential, or is the market already accounting for the next leg of growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 75% Overvalued

    Compared to Jumia Technologies last close of $12.24, the most popular narrative points to a much lower fair value, setting up a sharp disconnect in expectations.

    Market expectations may be assigning too much weight to recent advances in operational efficiency and cost controls (such as AI automation and headcount reduction) without fully accounting for the chronic lack of demonstrated sustainable profitability and ongoing cash burn, raising questions about Jumia's ability to invest in growth or weather regulatory changes, and thus putting future earnings stability at risk.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what kind of revenue trajectory, margin turnaround, and future earnings multiple are being penciled in to justify this gap? The narrative walks through a step by step forecast that ties ambitious growth assumptions to a premium valuation, and the conclusions may surprise you.

    Result: Fair Value of $6.99 (OVERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, rapidly improving logistics reach and higher margin services like fintech and advertising could scale faster than expected and support stronger, more sustainable profitability.

    Find out about the key risks to this Jumia Technologies narrative.

    Build Your Own Jumia Technologies Narrative

    If you see the story differently or prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can easily build a custom narrative in under three minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Jumia Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.