A Look At The Fair Value Of Mahanagar Gas Limited (NSE:MGL)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Mahanagar Gas is ₹1,287 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With ₹1,123 share price, Mahanagar Gas appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• Analyst price target for MGL is ₹1,469, which is 14% above our fair value estimate

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Mahanagar Gas Limited (NSE:MGL) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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What's The Estimated Valuation?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹4.62b	₹4.49b	₹6.20b	₹7.60b	₹8.95b	₹10.3b	₹11.5b	₹12.7b	₹13.9b	₹15.1b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x13	Analyst x15	Analyst x11	Est @ 22.55%	Est @ 17.82%	Est @ 14.51%	Est @ 12.20%	Est @ 10.57%	Est @ 9.44%	Est @ 8.64%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 13%	₹4.1k	₹3.5k	₹4.3k	₹4.7k	₹4.9k	₹5.0k	₹5.0k	₹4.9k	₹4.7k	₹4.6k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹46b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 13%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₅ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹15b× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (13%– 6.8%) = ₹271b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹271b÷ ( 1 + 13%)¹⁰= ₹81b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ₹127b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹1.1k, the company appears about fair value at a 13% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Mahanagar Gas as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

View our latest analysis for Mahanagar Gas

SWOT Analysis for Mahanagar Gas

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Mahanagar Gas, we've compiled three relevant items you should explore:

1. Risks: Be aware that Mahanagar Gas is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...
2. Future Earnings: How does MGL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.