Gold rush rolls on

GOLD looks set to continue its extraordinary run in 2026, with prices poised to climb even higher amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, persistent fiscal pressures, and strong central bank demand.

Investors and analysts alike expect the precious metal to outperform other asset classes once again, with forecasts signalling potential record highs in the coming year.

Standard Chartered Bank points to the global backdrop as a major tailwind for gold.

“It says a lot about the state of world affairs when gold is on pace to handsomely outperform global stocks and global bonds for the second year in a row,” the bank notes.

In fact, it adds, gold is on track to outperform global bonds for the 10th consecutive year.

The bank has raised its 12-month outlook to US$4,500 per ounce, driven by structural factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, concerns over expansionary fiscal policies, and doubts about the independence of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Standard Chartered highlights central banks in emerging markets as key players.

“Western financial sanctions against Russia in 2022 shook emerging markets’ confidence in the security of their reserves held overseas,” the bank says, noting that countries such as China, India, and Russia have significantly increased their gold holdings.

This accumulation, it argues, leaves ample room for further upside in central bank demand over the next few years.

Structural support is complemented by cyclical drivers, including expected Fed rate cuts, seasonal demand from China ahead of the Chinese New Year, and growing interest in gold as an alternative investment among institutional and retail buyers.

Bullish take

ING also anticipates a strong 2026, citing the continuation of major drivers behind gold’s rally.

“Gold staged a record-breaking rally in 2025, doubling in value in under two years,” ING observes, pointing to central bank buying, Fed rate cuts, a weaker US dollar, concerns about the Fed’s independence, and exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows.

The financial group predicts that prices will average US$4,325 per ounce next year.

While downside risks include a market sell-off, reduced safe-haven demand, or central banks selling reserves, ING expects any weakness to attract renewed interest from both retail and institutional buyers.

Deutsche Bank offers a more bullish outlook. The bank has raised its 2026 forecast from US$4,000 to US$4,450 per ounce, with a trading range of US$3,950 to US$4,950.

It sees a “positive structural picture” underpinned by strong central bank buying and ETF inflows, and argues that US$3,900 per ounce will act as a firm floor next year.

Deutsche Bank also highlights physical tightness across gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, while noting that its 2027 gold forecast remains unchanged at US$5,150 per ounce, despite potential risks from fewer Fed cuts or slower reserve accumulation.

Strong projections

Goldman Sachs concurs on central bank and ETF support, putting its 2026 target at US$4,900 per ounce.

The bank projects a further 20% upside as 2025’s core drivers repeat into 2026, and expects 70 to 80 tonnes per month of central bank buying throughout the year.

Fed easing of around 100 basis points by the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26) is seen as a further catalyst for Western ETF inflows.

Goldman Sachs also emphasises the potential for outsized gains from even small private-sector diversification, given gold’s relatively limited market size.

JP Morgan offers the most aggressive forecast, expecting gold to reach US$5,055 per ounce by the 4Q26.

The bank bases its outlook on combined investment and central bank demand of roughly 2,264 tonnes per year.

Multiple reinforcing factors – including Fed rate cuts, stagflation risks, and long-term dollar diversification – underpin its bullish stance.

Gold’s exceptional momentum in 2025 provides a strong base for 2026 gains, JP Morgan notes, reinforcing its view that the metal remains a high-conviction long-term call.

Morgan Stanley has also revised its outlook sharply, projecting US$4,400 per ounce for 2026, up from US$3,313.

The bank highlights expected US dollar weakness, ongoing ETF demand, and central bank accumulation, adding that investor preference for hard assets in a volatile macro environment continues to grow.

Gold, it notes, remains a core strategic hedge going into 2026.

Bank of America anticipates an average price of US$4,538 per ounce, with potential highs reaching US$5,000.

It attributes the upside to US fiscal deterioration, expanding deficits and long-term US dollar erosion, while noting that Fed policy represents a near-term risk.

Scenarios driven by currency debasement could, it suggests, push gold towards US$6,000 per ounce, with emerging-market central banks continuing to accumulate reserves.

Meanwhile, UBS forecasts an upside case of US$4,900 per ounce by the 2Q26.

It sees persistent political and financial instability as key drivers, noting gold’s role as an increasingly preferred safe-haven allocation.

The bank also highlights the trend of diversification away from the US dollar and warns that volatility in risk assets could accelerate flows into gold.

Taken together, these projections underscore a strong consensus that gold is likely to remain a major beneficiary of structural and cyclical forces in 2026.

While individual forecasts vary, all point to continued central bank support, potential Fed rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty as core drivers.

Even cautious investors may find themselves watching closely as the precious metal continues its upward trajectory.