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    Reassessing Coherent (COHR) Valuation After Bain Capital’s Third Secondary Share Sale

    Simply Wall St·12/12/2025 14:37:55
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    Bain Capital’s latest move to offload another sizeable block of Coherent (COHR) shares through a Goldman Sachs led secondary offering has investors double checking their thesis on the stock and the message behind this selling.

    See our latest analysis for Coherent.

    Despite Bain’s ongoing selldown, traders have largely leaned into Coherent’s AI and datacenter story. The stock is now at a share price of $198.5 after a powerful 90 day share price return of 92.74 percent and a standout 3 year total shareholder return of 471.06 percent, suggesting momentum is still firmly building rather than fading.

    If this kind of AI fueled run has your attention, it could be a good moment to explore other high growth tech and AI names via high growth tech and AI stocks for fresh ideas beyond Coherent.

    With the stock now comfortably above consensus targets and Bain cashing out chunk after chunk, investors are left wondering: is Coherent still a misunderstood AI winner at a discount, or has the market already priced in the next leg of growth?

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 13.7% Overvalued

    Compared with the latest close at $198.50, the most followed narrative pegs Coherent’s fair value nearer $175, framing today’s price as running ahead of fundamentals.

    The analysts have a consensus price target of $113.368 for Coherent based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $135.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $85.0.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to unpack why future margins, earnings power, and a richer profit multiple could still justify a lower fair value than today’s price? The assumptions behind this narrative tell a very different story to the market’s recent surge.

    Result: Fair Value of $174.53 (OVERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, mounting competition from low cost Asian optical players, along with lumpy and concentrated hyperscaler and Apple demand, could quickly undermine the current growth and margin narrative.

    Find out about the key risks to this Coherent narrative.

    Build Your Own Coherent Narrative

    If you see the numbers differently or want to challenge the consensus, you can create your own narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way

    A great starting point for your Coherent research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If you stop at Coherent, you risk missing other powerful setups. Put the Simply Wall St Screener to work and upgrade your opportunity pipeline today.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.