Gevo (GEVO): Valuation Check After CFO Share Sale, Q3 Revenue Growth and $26 Million Carbon Deal

Gevo (GEVO) is back on traders’ radar after CFO Oluwagbemileke Yusuf Agiri sold a sizable block of shares, just as the company reported Q3 revenue growth and a new $26 million carbon management partnership.

See our latest analysis for Gevo.

The insider sale lands against a backdrop of improving sentiment, with Gevo’s share price up 14.35 percent over the past month and 43.11 percent over the past quarter. Its one-year total shareholder return of 58.28 percent indicates that momentum is building rather than fading.

If this kind of turnaround story has your attention, it might be a good time to scan other energy transition names and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With revenue rising, a steep implied discount to analyst targets, and insiders trimming exposure, investors face a key question: Is Gevo still trading below its long term potential, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 60.7% Undervalued

Compared with Gevo’s last close of $2.39, the most followed narrative points to a fair value above $6, implying deep upside if its roadmap plays out.

Significant future revenue and margin expansion appear likely given surging demand for low carbon aviation fuel, driven by tighter emissions regulation and growing airline decarbonization mandates, with Gevo positioned to supply a rising addressable market via their modular ATJ plants and first mover advantage in cost competitive SAF production.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know how ambitious growth, margin expansion, and a premium future earnings multiple combine to justify that upside case? Curious which bold assumptions sit under the headline valuation? Dive in to see the specific revenue ramp and profitability path this narrative uses to reach its target fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $6.08 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upbeat trajectory could still be derailed by shifting government tax credits or execution hurdles as Gevo scales capital intensive sustainable fuel projects.

Find out about the key risks to this Gevo narrative.

Another View: Market Ratios Flash a Warning

Our valuation work suggests Gevo is deeply undervalued, but the market is telling a different story. On sales, the stock trades at 4.7 times revenue, far above the US Oil and Gas industry at 1.5 times and its own fair ratio of 0.9 times, yet far below peers at 16.4 times. Is that gap a value trap or a rare opportunity?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Gevo Narrative

If you see the story differently and want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Gevo research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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