Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | Continuing to explore major meetings, anticipate poor insurance securities and lay out ahead of schedule

[Anatomy Dashboard]

With the help of the Federal Reserve, the US stock S&P 500 and the Dow hit new closing records on Thursday. In the index, US stocks are indeed very well controlled. After every fall, there is always a way to make it rise, and when it is overheated, it will always cool down in due course. Therefore, unless there is a crisis, don't take it lightly that US stocks will weaken; they are all volatile. The logic in this is complicated, but it's pretty much the same. Hong Kong stocks moved ahead of schedule yesterday, and the major meeting was over. Today's rise is inevitable, closing up 1.75%.

Social finance data is out. Central Bank: The scale of social financing increased by 33.39 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of this year, and RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan. At the end of November, the broad currency (M2) balance was 336.99 trillion yuan, up 8% year over year. The balance of narrow currency (M1) was 112.89 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year over year. Overall, the government bond market remains stable. The core driving force of the government bond market is still weak, but residents' credit is still weak. The scissor difference between M1 and M2 is lower than the M2 growth rate, and short-term capital activity needs to be increased.

On December 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China will launch a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation using fixed amounts, interest rate tenders, and multiple price wins, for a period of 6 months (182 days). By the end of the year, inject liquidity into the market. Towards the end of the year, the general direction is optimistic. Funds will be deployed ahead of schedule, and there will be changes in insurance and securities. For example, China Taibao (02601), China Life Insurance (02628), Everbright Securities (06178), and CITIC Securities (06030) all rose by more than 5%.

Regarding yesterday's Central Economic Work Conference, there were no outstanding highlights in the market in general; there was only partial feedback. Apart from the direction already reported by the market yesterday, today's focus is on: 1. “National unified market”, breaking down local protection and market barriers, and establishing uniform regulatory rules and enforcement standards. The express delivery industry is benefiting from this. Jitu Express - W (01519): The Latin American market has become the strongest growth engine. The volume of 25Q3 packages in the Latin American market surged nearly 50% year on year. Among them, Brazil and Mexico contributed 80% of Latin American orders. After binding leading e-commerce companies such as MELI/TTS, the order growth rate is expected to double, which will replicate the expansion path of Southeast Asia this year. The “deep commercial flow bundling+accurate resolution of local logistics pain points+agent profit sharing” model supports it to quickly seize the market at low cost. Today's increase is more than 5%; there is also Zhongtong Express-W (02057), which is up more than 4%.

2. In the direction of agricultural machinery, the People's Daily published an article: Domestic agricultural machinery market recognition increased markedly; in the first three quarters of 25 years, China's tractor exports increased 35% year-on-year, and the growth rate reached 54% in October, entering a phase of accelerated growth compared to 10% in 24 years. Currently, the share of Chinese brands in the emerging market is generally within 10%. The leading company, No. 1 Tractor Co., Ltd. (00038), accounts for only about 10% of overseas revenue. Compared with other machinery products, there is huge room for improvement. It is expected to target the overseas explosion of construction machinery. Today, First Tractor Co., Ltd. has surged by more than 11%. Other construction machinery is also showing good gains. See sector focus.

3. In the AI-related direction, technology cannot be circumvented; this line mainly follows overseas mapping. Scott Strazik, CEO of GE Vernova, a leading US power equipment company, recently said that as large-scale data center construction drives up electricity demand, the company expects to sign an 80 gigawatt combined-cycle gas turbine contract by the end of the year. The company's gas turbines have sold out of production capacity up to 2028, and the production capacity in 2029 has already been sold to only 10%. Leading domestic gas turbine technology layout companies are expected to fully benefit from this spillover of overseas demand. In addition, the subject of controlled nuclear fusion has also been added. The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2030, the global nuclear fusion market is expected to approach 500 billion US dollars (3.5 trillion yuan). According to data from the Fusion Industry Association, as of 2024, 23 fusion companies around the world plan to build the first commercial fusion power plant between 2031 and 2040, and about 70% of these companies expect to connect the first demonstration reactor to grid-connected power generation by 2035. Major products include Harbin Electric (01133), which rose more than 11%, Dongfang Electric (01072), which rose more than 13%, and Shanghai Electric (02727), which rose more than 8%.

There is also domestic AI excitement. The three big model unicorns — Smart Spectrum, MiniMax, and Dark Side of the Moon — all chose to launch the launch race. According to some sources, MiniMax, which is headquartered in Shanghai, intends to go to Hong Kong for an IPO as early as January 2026; Smart Spectrum will complete the listing counseling and filing with the Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau in April 2025, becoming the first company among the “Big Model Six Little Tigers” and is currently considering switching to Hong Kong stocks; and the dark side of the month, which is expected to reach 4 billion US dollars, is also planning to launch a listing plan in the second half of 2026. The launch of these types will once again increase AI's demand for computing power. The related optical modules Cambridge Technology (06166) and Changfei Optical Cable (06869) will increase by nearly 8%, and Huiju Technology (01729) will increase by more than 4%. On the application side, Meitu (01357), Reading Group (00772), and the fourth paradigm (06682) all rebounded more than 5% from the bottom.

4. Consumer side, this is also standard. With the collaboration between (09890) and COEXIST Group, the market expects a breakthrough in trendy games combining its “classic IP+artist IP”, which is up nearly 9% today.

There is also quite a bit of catalysis for AI glasses. Quark AI glasses added a new production line to sprint to production capacity during the Spring Festival: Quark AI glasses added an assembly line at the Lixun factory. According to the news, Apple expects to launch AI glasses in 2026, but delivery may be delayed until 2027. Tianyue Advanced (02631): Silicon carbide materials are showing high growth expectations in emerging applications such as AR glasses. Up more than 6% today; Knight Optics (02276): The company became the second-largest manufacturer of eyeglass lenses in the world (by volume) in 2024. In addition to the traditional eyewear lens business, which is expected to achieve a 25% net profit compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2027, the rise of smart glasses will unlock long-term growth potential. Today's increase is over 10%.

On December 11, Hang Seng Index Company issued a notice that the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Software and Semiconductor Index will be renamed the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Software Theme Index. The calculation method will also be updated, and the number of constituent stocks will be fixed at 40. Adding the four shares of Reading Text Group (00772), Quzhi Group (00917), Meitu (01357), and Huiliang Technology (01860), excluding several stocks such as ASMPT (00522), SMIC (00981), and Huahong Semiconductor (01347). The index's renaming and related component changes will take effect on December 16, 2025. The number of constituent stocks remains at 32. Naturally, the selected varieties are highly sought after. They are all rising well today, and chips are temporarily disturbed by Nvidia in the US, but in the long run, as the yield increases, domestic demand is strong. Under various expansion of production, continuous replacement is the general direction, and it is expected that they will make a comeback next year.

[Section Focus]

According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association on major excavator manufacturers, 2,027 excavators of various types were sold in November 2025, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year. Among them, domestic sales volume was 9842 units, up 9.11% year on year; export volume was 10,185 units, up 18.8% year on year. From January to November 2025, a total of 212,162 excavators were sold, up 16.7% year on year; domestic sales volume was 108,187 units, up 18.6% year on year; and 103,975 units were exported, up 14.9% year on year.

Major Hong Kong stock products: Sany International (00631), Zoomlion Heavy Industries (01157), and Sinotruk (03808).

[Individual Stock Mining]

Tiangong International (00826): Growth in demand for titanium alloys accelerates layout in the field of nuclear fusion

Recently, the company and the “Steel and Precious Metals Research Institute” of China Aviation Development Beijing Aeronautical Materials Research Institute conducted powder metallurgy technology discussions to help innovate high-end aviation equipment materials. Tiangong International had revenue of 447 million yuan and adjusted net profit of 65 million yuan in the third quarter of 2025.

Comment: The company is a global leader in the field of tool steel. The global market share of mold steel ranks first in the country, and high-speed steel ranks first in the world. It provides the company with consistent and stable cash flow and strong resilience to risks. As the company continues to promote import substitution in the field of high-end materials, the tool steel business is expected to start a new upward cycle. Through its holding subsidiary Tiangong Co., Ltd., the company deeply lays out the entire titanium alloy industry chain and accurately enters the blue ocean market of consumer electronics. The company's titanium alloy business is expected to fully benefit from the continued expansion of the downstream market and is the core engine driving future performance growth. Consumer electronics customer usage is expected to recover in 2026, driving the company's performance growth.

The company lays out humanoid robot screws made of high-nitrogen steel, and has cooperated with domestic companies. Because of its high performance and low cost advantages, high nitrogen steel is one of the materials for manufacturing planetary roller screws. At present, the company has broken through foreign technical barriers and adopted unique domestic smelting technology to overcome problems such as controlling nitrogen content and improving purity of high-nitrogen alloy materials. In July 2025, we developed high-nitrogen steel products suitable for the production of planetary roller screws with Runfu Power and Hengerda. Furthermore, powder metallurgy technology will become the company's low-level capability platform for entering the strategic new materials and high-end manufacturing circuit, which is expected to bring both performance and valuation improvements.