James River Group Holdings (NASDAQ:JRVR) adds US$33m to market cap in the past 7 days, though investors from five years ago are still down 86%

While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the James River Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:JRVR) share price has gained 26% in the last three months. But will that repair the damage for the weary investors who have owned this stock as it declined over half a decade? Probably not. Five years have seen the share price descend precipitously, down a full 87%. So we don't gain too much confidence from the recent recovery. The important question is if the business itself justifies a higher share price in the long term. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

The recent uptick of 12% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

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James River Group Holdings isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last five years James River Group Holdings saw its revenue shrink by 0.2% per year. While far from catastrophic that is not good. The share price fall of 13% (per year, over five years) is a stern reminder that money-losing companies are expected to grow revenue. It takes a certain kind of mental fortitude (or recklessness) to buy shares in a company that loses money and doesn't grow revenue. Fear of becoming a 'bagholder' may be keeping people away from this stock.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling James River Group Holdings stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that James River Group Holdings has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 49% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 13% per year over the last half decade. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for James River Group Holdings you should know about.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.