According to the Societe Generale Securities Research Report, US stock valuations are at an all-time high, and risk premiums will continue to be low. Amid concerns about the AI bubble theory, the volatility of the US technology stock market will increase in 2026:1) Currently, the S&P 500 valuation is at an all-time high, and risk premiums are at an historically low level, but under the support of fiscal and monetary “double breadth” policies, compounded by the increase in total factor productivity brought about by AI's grand narrative, the probability of a sharp loss in valuations is also small. 2) However, the current low risk premium rate and high valuation system is essentially based on the three elements of “loose policy expectations - higher growth expectations - technological innovation premiums”. Disturbances in any of these areas may trigger the market to gradually reassess risk premiums. In particular, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates beyond expectations, we need to be wary of a new consensus on worsening US inflation in the second half of 2026, thus driving the risk premium back up.

According to the Societe Generale Securities Research Report, US stock valuations are at an all-time high, and risk premiums will continue to be low. Amid concerns about the AI bubble theory, the volatility of the US technology stock market will increase in 2026:1) Currently, the S&P 500 valuation is at an all-time high, and risk premiums are at an historically low level, but under the support of fiscal and monetary “double breadth” policies, compounded by the increase in total factor productivity brought about by AI's grand narrative, the probability of a sharp loss in valuations is also small. 2) However, the current low risk premium rate and high valuation system is essentially based on the three elements of “loose policy expectations - higher growth expectations - technological innovation premiums”. Disturbances in any of these areas may trigger the market to gradually reassess risk premiums. In particular, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates beyond expectations, we need to be wary of a new consensus on worsening US inflation in the second half of 2026, thus driving the risk premium back up.