GF Securities: Coal imports fell 12% year on year in November, there is still room for increase in demand during peak season

The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report saying that in November, the Thermal Coal Association raised 10 yuan/ton, and demand is expected to improve as December enters the peak coal season. After a rapid rise in coal prices since October, the overall price of various types of coal has recently declined, but it has increased significantly compared to the center in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. After December, on the one hand, end-of-year safety supervision will be strict, and some coal mines that have met their annual production targets will gradually cut production. On the other hand, seasonal demand from December to January will increase further, and coal prices are expected to gradually rise steadily. At the same time, considering that inventories in various sectors are still lower than the same period last year, subsequent demand for stock replenishment will also support coal prices, and the central upward trend in coal prices in '26 is highly certain.

The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

Coal market review: Electricity consumption exceeded expectations by 10.4% in October, overall demand for non-electricity was weak, and coal imports fell 9.7% year on year

Domestic coal prices: Since November, the market price of coal thermal coal rose and then fell further; the overall price of coking coal fell; international coal prices: Australian thermal coal and coking coal prices continued to rise since November; domestic demand: electricity consumption increased 10.4% year-on-year in October, demand for steel and cement was weak, and methanol demand was good; domestic supply: domestic raw coal production fell 2.3% year on year in October, import volume in November 12.0% year-on-year decline; overseas supply and demand: Global shipping coal loading volume fell 3.6% year on year in the first 10 months, and overall demand in emerging markets improved; industrial chain inventory: power plants continued to break down during the peak season, weakening coal price expectations led to a recovery in midstream and upstream inventories; Policy and company news: The 26-year long-term cooperation policy was implemented, overall safety regulations became stricter since the fourth quarter, and production continued to be limited.

Recent market trends: coal prices are rising at an accelerated pace, and the fourth round of increases in coke has started

Thermal coal: Since late November, high coal prices have declined, and seasonal demand may be further released starting in December. At the same time, production site safety supervision will maintain a strict level at the end of the year, and some coal mines that have completed their annual production targets will gradually cut production. Supply is expected to remain relatively low, and coal prices are expected to gradually rise steadily; coking coal market demand has recently entered a low season, but considering the recent slight improvement in downstream operating rates, and the overall inventory level is low. The subsequent demand for winter storage and replenishment will also support coal prices. It is expected that coking coal prices or Continuity is mainly about stability.

Aspect of the target

Key companies: Steady profit dividends: China Shenhua (601008.SH,01088), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH,01898), Yankuang Energy (600188.SH,01171), Power Investment Energy (002128.SZ), Xinji Energy (601918.SH), etc.; (2) Benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply contraction: Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ), Lu'an Huaneng (601699.SH), Huaibei Mining (600985. SH), Jinkong Coal (601001.SH), Shougang Resources (00639), Yancoal Australia (03668), Pingmei Co., Ltd. (601666.SH), Shanmei International (600546.SH), Huayang Co., Ltd. (3) Outstanding medium- to long-term growth: Baofeng Energy (USD), China's Qinfa (00866), etc. 600348.SH 600989.SH

Risk Alerts

The price of coal coke fell beyond expectations, the progress of production capacity construction fell short of expectations, cost control fell short of expectations, performance was low, etc.