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To own Commvault, you need to believe that its data protection and cyber resilience platform can keep winning enterprise spend as threats and cloud complexity increase, while the shift to subscriptions still supports healthy earnings growth. The announced CFO departure and interim Office of the CFO structure do not appear to alter the near term focus on subscription ARR growth and execution on large enterprise deals, but they add some near term governance and execution risk around margins and capital allocation.
The most relevant update here is Commvault’s plan to showcase new AI enabled cyber resilience tools like Synthetic Recovery and Identity Resilience at Gartner’s IOCS conference, reinforcing its push to make recovery faster and cleaner across hybrid and multi cloud setups. For investors focused on catalysts, this product momentum supports the case that rising cyber threats and compliance needs may continue to drive demand for Commvault Cloud and help offset concerns about deal lumpiness and dependence on existing customers for ARR expansion.
Yet, beneath the product buzz, investors should be aware of the risk that heavy reliance on large, lumpy enterprise deals could...
Read the full narrative on Commvault Systems (it's free!)
Commvault Systems’ narrative projects $1.5 billion revenue and $173.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 12.2% yearly revenue growth and a $92.0 million earnings increase from $81.1 million today.
Uncover how Commvault Systems' forecasts yield a $193.70 fair value, a 57% upside to its current price.
Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$76 to US$208 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. Against that backdrop, the current concerns about lumpy large deals and revenue timing make it especially important to compare several independent takes on Commvault’s potential resilience and growth.
Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Commvault Systems - why the stock might be worth 39% less than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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