Nebius Group (NBIS): Valuation Check After Major Microsoft and Meta AI Infrastructure Deals

Nebius Group (NBIS) just locked in multi billion dollar AI infrastructure deals with Microsoft and Meta, but the stock is wobbling as investors weigh that growth story against rising debt and a stretched valuation.

See our latest analysis for Nebius Group.

Those mega deals arrive after a wild run, with Nebius delivering a soaring year to date share price return of 228.84 percent but cooling off with a 30 day share price return of negative 9.84 percent, suggesting momentum is pausing rather than breaking.

If Nebius has you thinking about who might be next in AI, it could be worth exploring other high growth tech and AI names through high growth tech and AI stocks.

With revenue growth exploding and fresh AI contracts locking in years of demand, Nebius looks like a classic high growth story. After a near tripling in a year, the question is whether there is still a buying opportunity or if the market is already pricing in all that future growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 37% Undervalued

With Nebius last closing at $100.33 against a narrative fair value near $159, the story centers on whether sky high AI growth can justify that gap.

The positive narrative around recent high profile customer wins and expanding partnerships underpins high recurring revenue expectations. However, Nebius' limited brand recognition outside its home region may constrain its ability to land large scale, multiyear enterprise contracts, leading to potential overestimation of future earnings visibility and customer diversification.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how fast growing revenue, shifting margins, and a bold future earnings multiple combine to back this valuation jump? Unpack the full playbook driving that target.

Result: Fair Value of $159.29 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside could unravel if hyperscaler consolidation squeezes Nebius' differentiation or if regulatory and environmental costs sharply erode its margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Nebius Group narrative.

Build Your Own Nebius Group Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a customised narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Nebius Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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