Evaluating VST Stock's Actual Performance

Electricity wholesaler Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) has made headlines thanks to its recent purchases of nuclear power plants and its growing portfolio of solar farms sponsored by artificial intelligence (AI) data center hyperscalers.

But has Vistra paid off for long-time shareholders? Here's how Vistra investors have done over the short and long term.

1 year: Just a bit ahead

Surprisingly for a stock that has received so much buzz lately, Vistra's share price has lagged the broader market over the past year. The company has taken investors on a roller-coaster ride since last December, with shares down 36.4% in April and up 41.4% in September, but they slid back down to a current 15.2% one-year gain. Factoring in the company's dividend, which currently yields only about 0.5%, only ups that gain to 15.8%.

The market, on the other hand, as measured by the S&P 500, has returned 13.3% for the year, or 14.7% on a total return basis, which factors in reinvestment of dividends. That means Vistra shareholders who bought in a year ago are a little ahead of the market by 1.9 percentage points if you don't count dividends or 1.1 percentage points if you do.

But does the picture improve over the longer term?

3 years: Market crusher

Boy, does it ever!

2024 was an amazing year for Vistra's stock, which rose significantly during the first half of the year, but surged in September 2024 to finish the year up 257.9%, or 261.3% on a total return basis. Thanks almost entirely to that one amazing year, the three-year return on a Vistra stock investment is a massive 640% without dividends, or 678% on a total return basis!

That completely crushes the market's poky 68.2% return and its 75.7% total return.

But now that the company's one big year is factored in, do longer-term shareholders see any benefit at all?

5 years: Better and better

Indeed, they do!

2021 and 2022 may not have been as stellar for the company as 2024, but the stock was up 18% (25.6% on a total return basis) during those two years, beating the S&P's 2.2% and 5.4% respective returns during that time. Because of that outperformance, shareholders who bought Vistra stock in December 2020 were in an even better starting place when the company's bombshell 2024 rolled around, so they're currently sitting on an 846% absolute gain, or a 958% gain on a total return basis. That absolutely obliterates the S&P 500's 87% absolute and 101% total returns for the same period.

Vistra's impressive outperformance over the medium term -- but not the short term -- shows the value of buy-and-hold investing in quality companies. Sometimes shareholders may need to wait years for their investment to pay off, but buying and holding over the long term increases the odds that you'll be holding shares when the payoff occurs.

John Bromels has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.