Aurubis (XTRA:NDA) Margin Squeeze and EPS Collapse Challenge Long-Term Bullish Narrative

Aurubis (XTRA:NDA) has wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of €4.4 billion alongside EPS of €1.04, setting the tone for a year where profit margins stayed under pressure but remained positive. Over the past six quarters, the company has seen revenue move from €4.2 billion in Q4 2024 to a range between roughly €4.2 billion and €5.0 billion per quarter, while quarterly EPS has swung between €1.04 and €5.87, highlighting how sensitive earnings are to underlying margin shifts. With trailing 12 month net profit margin sitting at 1.4% versus 2.4% a year earlier, investors are likely to read this update as a reminder that the near term story hinges less on sales volume and more on whether margins can stabilize.

See our full analysis for Aurubis.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this margin story lines up with the dominant market narratives around Aurubis and where those stories may need an update.

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Margins Squeeze Net Income To €261 Million TTM

• Over the last twelve months, Aurubis generated €261 million of net income on €18.2 billion of revenue, which translates into a 1.4% net margin versus 2.4% a year earlier.
• Bears argue that margin compression will be a structural drag, and the recent data give them some support:
  • Trailing net income fell from €416 million a year ago to €261 million now, while revenue rose from €17.2 billion to €18.2 billion, so more sales are translating into less profit.
  • Five year earnings have declined around 5.9% per year even before considering forecasts for margins to shrink from 3.4% to 1.3%, which aligns with concerns about slower profit growth than topline expansion.

In a market where small shifts in margin can make or break the thesis, skeptics see the drop from €416 million to €261 million of trailing net income as a warning sign that recent profitability may not justify a premium narrative. 🐻 Aurubis Bear Case

EPS Slide From €5.87 To €1.04 Tests Growth Hopes

• Within FY 2025, quarterly EPS moved from €5.87 in Q1 to €3.73 in Q2, €1.78 in Q3 and just €1.04 in Q4, even as revenue stayed between about €4.2 billion and €5.0 billion each quarter.
• Consensus narrative points to strong long term copper demand and strategic projects as growth drivers, yet the EPS path adds nuance:
  • TTM EPS has dropped from €15.9 at Q2 2025 to €6.0 by Q4 2025, while analysts still expect earnings to grow about 11% per year, so the base they are growing from has already been reset lower.
  • Projects like the Richmond recycling facility are expected to add around €170 million of EBITDA within a wider €260 million strategic uplift, but near term ramp up and cost pressure are showing up as weaker per share profitability today.

DCF Shows 33% Upside Despite 1.4% Margin

• At a share price of €119.10, Aurubis trades about 33% below a DCF fair value of €178.35, while its P E of 19.9 times sits below the 63.8 times peer average yet above the 16.2 times European Metals and Mining industry level.
• Bullish investors lean on this valuation gap and future projects, and the current numbers partly back that stance:
  • Even with net margin at 1.4% and five year earnings down 5.9% annually, analysts still project roughly 4% annual revenue growth and around 11% annual earnings growth, suggesting the current earnings trough may not be permanent.
  • Forecast earnings of €270.2 million and EPS of €6.11 by around 2028, combined with an assumed future P E of 14.8 times, imply that if Aurubis reaches those levels from today’s softer base, the present discount to DCF could offer meaningful upside.

Bulls see a stock priced at €119.10 with a DCF fair value of €178.35 and medium term earnings growth forecasts as a potential mispricing worth digging into before margins turn. 🐂 Aurubis Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Aurubis on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

See the numbers differently? In just a few minutes, you can turn that viewpoint into a structured narrative that reflects your own thesis: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Aurubis research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Explore Alternatives

Aurubis is grappling with shrinking margins and sharply lower EPS, which raises questions about how reliably it can translate future revenue growth into consistent shareholder returns.

If this earnings volatility makes you uneasy, you can use our stable growth stocks screener (2087 results) to quickly focus on companies that are already demonstrating steadier revenue and profit trends across different market conditions.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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