The board of Chofu Seisakusho Co., Ltd. (TSE:5946) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥23.00 per share on the 24th of March. The dividend yield will be 2.3% based on this payment which is still above the industry average.
If the payments aren't sustainable, a high yield for a few years won't matter that much. The last payment made up 73% of earnings, but cash flows were much higher. In general, cash flows are more important than earnings, so we are comfortable that the dividend will be sustainable going forward, especially with so much cash left over for reinvestment.
If the company can't turn things around, EPS could fall by 3.3% over the next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could reach 79%, which is definitely on the higher side.
See our latest analysis for Chofu Seisakusho
The company has a sustained record of paying dividends with very little fluctuation. Since 2015, the annual payment back then was ¥32.00, compared to the most recent full-year payment of ¥46.00. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.7% a year over that time. Dividends have grown relatively slowly, which is not great, but some investors may value the relative consistency of the dividend.
Investors could be attracted to the stock based on the quality of its payment history. Let's not jump to conclusions as things might not be as good as they appear on the surface. In the last five years, Chofu Seisakusho's earnings per share has shrunk at approximately 3.3% per annum. If earnings continue declining, the company may have to make the difficult choice of reducing the dividend or even stopping it completely - the opposite of dividend growth.
In summary, we are pleased with the dividend remaining consistent, and we think there is a good chance of this continuing in the future. With shrinking earnings, the company may see some issues maintaining the dividend even though they look pretty sustainable for now. This looks like it could be a good dividend stock going forward, but we would note that the payout ratio has been at higher levels in the past so it could happen again.
Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. To that end, Chofu Seisakusho has 3 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about. Is Chofu Seisakusho not quite the opportunity you were looking for? Why not check out our selection of top dividend stocks.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.