Is Oxford Industries, Inc. (NYSE:OXM) Worth US$31.7 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights

• Oxford Industries' estimated fair value is US$25.62 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Oxford Industries' US$31.74 share price signals that it might be 24% overvalued
• Our fair value estimate is 47% lower than Oxford Industries' analyst price target of US$48.25

How far off is Oxford Industries, Inc. (NYSE:OXM) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

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Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$127.9m	US$41.5m	US$34.3m	US$30.5m	US$28.5m	US$27.4m	US$26.9m	US$26.9m	US$27.1m	US$27.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -17.26%	Est @ -11.10%	Est @ -6.79%	Est @ -3.78%	Est @ -1.67%	Est @ -0.19%	Est @ 0.85%	Est @ 1.57%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 12%	US$115	US$33.3	US$24.7	US$19.7	US$16.5	US$14.2	US$12.5	US$11.2	US$10.1	US$9.2

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$266m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₅ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$28m× (1 + 3.3%) ÷ (12%– 3.3%) = US$343m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$343m÷ ( 1 + 12%)¹⁰= US$115m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$381m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$31.7, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Oxford Industries as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.796. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

See our latest analysis for Oxford Industries

SWOT Analysis for Oxford Industries

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Oxford Industries, we've compiled three essential items you should consider:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Oxford Industries you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does OXM's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.