MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI): Examining Valuation After Strong Q4 Results and Upbeat Revenue Outlook

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) just posted fourth-quarter earnings that surpassed forecasts, showing a sharp increase in both sales and income compared to last year. The company also offered a solid revenue outlook for the upcoming quarter.

See our latest analysis for MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings.

MACOM’s latest results have powered the stock’s impressive run, even after a brief dip tied to chip sector volatility and insider sales earlier this month. The share price is up 18.8% over the past month and 30.5% in the last 90 days. This has helped the company deliver a standout 32.1% total shareholder return over the past year and a remarkable 280.1% over five years, both clear signs of momentum building as investors focus on its growth story and solid fundamentals.

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But after such a rapid climb, investors have to wonder if MACOM’s stock is still undervalued or if the impressive growth has already been fully factored into the price, leaving little room for more upside.

Most Popular Narrative: 3.5% Overvalued

MACOM’s widely followed narrative sets a fair value of $157, which is just below the latest close at $162.5. This suggests the market may be pricing in more optimism than the consensus future outlook indicates.

MACOM is set to benefit from accelerating demand in AI-driven cloud computing and hyperscale data center buildouts, as evidenced by strong revenue growth from high-speed optical interconnects, photodetectors, LPO chipsets, and upcoming PCIe equalizer solutions. This positions the company for sustained top-line growth as AI workloads proliferate. The global rollout of 5G and expansion of satellite communications (SATCOM) are driving significant demand for MACOM's advanced RF, microwave, and GaN-on-SiC solutions, with new product portfolios (such as GaN 4 process and high-frequency amplifiers) enabling market share gains and better pricing, supporting both near-term revenue and high-margin, longer-term earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

What powers this bold valuation call? Hint: The blueprint features rapid transformation beyond standard semiconductor cycles, a surge in key end markets, and a profit outlook that would put most peers on notice. Want to see which leaps in financial performance lie behind the curtain? You’ll only find the missing pieces inside the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $157 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustaining elevated profit margins could prove challenging if volatile end markets or operational hurdles at key facilities arise. This could potentially shift the growth narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Narrative

If you’d rather dig into the numbers yourself or follow a different angle, it’s quick and easy to explore the data and develop your own narrative in under three minutes, so why not Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward investors are optimistic about regarding MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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