United Utilities Group PLC (LON:UU.) Half-Year Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

United Utilities Group PLC (LON:UU.) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.3% to UK£11.87 in the week after its latest half-year results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of UK£1.3b and statutory earnings per share of UK£0.39 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that United Utilities Group is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering United Utilities Group are now predicting revenues of UK£2.58b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 8.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 42% to UK£0.83. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£2.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.86 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for United Utilities Group

The consensus price target held steady at UK£13.02, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values United Utilities Group at UK£15.35 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£11.50. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that United Utilities Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting United Utilities Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 18% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.5% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that United Utilities Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for United Utilities Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for United Utilities Group (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.