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    Matson (MATX) Valuation: Fresh Perspective After Q3 Results and Lower Guidance

    Simply Wall St·11/14/2025 03:17:54
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    Matson (MATX) just released its third quarter results, highlighting drops in sales, revenue, and net income compared to a year ago. The company also projected lower operating income for the current quarter, giving investors plenty to consider.

    See our latest analysis for Matson.

    Matson’s latest drop in share price, down 3.24% following the earnings announcement, reflects investor caution after news of falling sales and a dimmer near-term outlook. Despite rebounding 14.65% over the last month, the stock’s year-to-date share price return remains negative, and its 1-year total shareholder return is down a notable 34%. Still, with a strong three- and five-year total shareholder return, long-term momentum is clearly intact but near-term sentiment has cooled amid operational headwinds and slower growth expectations.

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    With shares now trading at a notable discount to analyst targets and recent operational challenges weighing on sentiment, investors are left to consider whether Matson offers a compelling entry point or if the market has already factored in future growth.

    Most Popular Narrative: 21% Undervalued

    With Matson's fair value estimate at $135 and the most recent closing price at $106.60, the narrative highlights a wide gap between what analysts believe the stock is worth and where it's currently trading. This sets the stage for a deeper look into the assumptions powering that valuation.

    Exclusive access to U.S.-flag, Jones Act-protected shipping routes provides Matson with a strong competitive moat and reliable pricing power. This supports stable long-term earnings and cash flows, even amidst ongoing industry volatility.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to know what projections drive this bullish stance? The narrative makes a bold call based on future profit margins and a dramatic shift in earnings multiples. The actual forecast behind this fair value might surprise even seasoned investors. Eager to see the unexpected math that underpins such a significant discount?

    Result: Fair Value of $135 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, persistent volatility in global trade and Matson’s reliance on a few key shipping routes could present challenges, even for the strongest long-term outlook.

    Find out about the key risks to this Matson narrative.

    Build Your Own Matson Narrative

    If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can easily craft your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

    A great starting point for your Matson research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.