Evaluating Rogers (ROG) After Q3 Earnings and Updated Guidance: Is the Stock Undervalued or Priced for Slow Recovery?

Rogers, fresh off its third quarter earnings report, updated investors with new guidance for the upcoming quarter. The company projects slight year-over-year sales growth but a sequential drop, along with earnings per share expected to be modest at best.

See our latest analysis for Rogers.

Following the latest results and fresh guidance, Rogers’ share price has bounced 20.3% over the past three months. However, its one-year total shareholder return remains down 24.6%. Recent volatility likely reflects shifting sentiment as investors weigh future growth prospects against operational challenges and muted long-term performance.

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With shares rebounding but long-term returns still lagging, are investors overlooking potential value in Rogers? Alternatively, is the current price already factoring in the company’s slow path to recovery and future prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.7% Undervalued

Rogers' last close at $84.45 comes in below the narrative fair value of $95.67, setting the stage for debate around its valuation case and future prospects.

Strategic rebalancing of manufacturing capacity to lower-cost, faster-growing Asian regions, notably China, and cost containment actions are expected to yield at least $13M in additional annual cost savings. These measures are projected to contribute to significant margin improvement and higher earnings from 2026 onward. Accelerated product development processes and greater organizational agility aim to reduce lead times, increase the speed of customer fulfillment and new product launches, enhance customer retention, win new business faster, and support both revenue growth and margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious why this valuation stands out? The most popular narrative hinges on a powerful combination of profit turnaround, ambitious margin forecasts, and a forward-looking profit multiple. How do these bold building blocks mesh to create a compelling upside for Rogers? Don’t miss the full story behind the numbers making waves in this fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $95.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Rogers still faces fierce competition in Asia and restructuring setbacks. Both of these challenges could limit profit gains and delay its recovery trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this Rogers narrative.

Another View: Looking Beyond Fair Value

While the current valuation suggests Rogers is undervalued, our DCF model presents a more conservative assessment. Using this method, the shares may actually be trading above their calculated fair value. This raises the question of whether the market is anticipating a faster turnaround than the fundamentals can support.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Rogers for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 860 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Rogers Narrative

If you have a different perspective on Rogers or want to test your own theories, you can build a custom narrative from scratch in just a few minutes, Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward investors are optimistic about regarding Rogers.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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