Guohai Securities: SOFC's new blue ocean chrome salt value once again ushered in a revaluation

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that due to a sharp increase in gas turbines and a sharp increase in demand for commercial aircraft engines brought about by electricity demand such as AI data centers, the chromium salt industry is undergoing a revaluation. Looking at the price side of chromium salt products, according to Wind, the price of chromium metal has shown two waves of upward trend in 2025. In addition to the high demand for chromium salt driven by the overseas “two-engine” industry chain, SOFC will once again re-evaluate the chromium salt industry chain, and chromium salt is expected to become a scarce resource in AI power development.

Guohai Securities's main views are as follows:

SOFC fuel cells are composed of electrodes, electrolytes, and connectors

According to Bloom Energy's patent, its connector solution uses 95% pure chromium +5% pure iron and is manufactured using powder metallurgy technology. The amount of chromium in the metal is remarkable. According to the calculation of Bloom Energy related technical indicators, it was obtained that the mass of the single-chip connector was 216 g, and the mass of the corresponding metal chromium was 205.2 g.

A single SOFC corresponds to 25W of power. Based on this calculation, SOFC will drive the market space for chromium salts. The 1GW SOFC demand will drive 0.82 thousand tons of metallic chromium, corresponding to 29,500 tons of sodium dichromate, and the 10GW market space corresponds to 82,000 tons of metallic chromium and 295,500 tons of sodium dichromate.

Bloom Energy plans to double the plant's annual production capacity from the current 1GW to 2GW by the end of 2026. Based on Guohai Securities's previous analysis, the chromium salt demand elasticity was raised, and the chromium salt supply and demand gap is expected to reach 349,900 tons by 2028, with a gap ratio of 32%, which is remarkable.

Demand for AI power has increased dramatically, and SOFC has vast space

According to Bloom Energy's official website, as data center energy demand continues to greatly exceed supply, 35 GW of data center capacity will be announced within the next five years, equivalent to more than six times the average annual energy capacity of New York City. To meet surging demand, data centers are using on-site power systems as their primary source of energy, a shift reflecting the industry's push for innovative solutions to address economic needs and ease pressure on the country's aging grid. In the US, 55GW of data center capacity is expected to go online in the next five years (compared to the current capacity of 25GW as of January 2025).

As of January 2025, the US has announced a capacity increase of approximately 20GW. It is estimated that by 2030, approximately 30% of sites will use on-site electricity as the primary source of energy. At the same time, compared to gas turbines and existing steam turbines, due to the higher energy conversion efficiency of SOFC, as production capacity is released, SOFC has more room to reduce electricity costs. The future market space is not limited to AIDC, and there is room for alternatives in the process of converting fossil energy into electricity.

Investment advice

SOFC was catalyzed by AI power demand, and the gradual release of the SOFC industry ushered in a boom cycle, maintaining the SOFC industry's “recommended” rating. We recommend Zhenhua Co., Ltd. (603067.SH) (global leader in chromium salt), Sanhuan Group (BE core supplier of electrolyte diaphragm plates), Yishitong (688733.SH) (independent supply of key powder materials for solid oxide batteries, single batteries, and key components for electric stacks; the first demonstration project is scheduled to be tested by the end of 2025), Weichai Power (000338.SZ) (SOFC systems have been delivered to Shaanxi Gas, China Power Investment) to continue to promote the commercial launch of SOFC and take a stake in CeresPower.

Risk Alerts

Competition in the industry has intensified, the economy has declined sharply, product prices have fluctuated greatly, the European and American advanced technology blockades, the focus on the company's performance or falls short of expectations, and there may be a certain deviation between estimates and reality.