A Look at Freeport-McMoRan’s Valuation After Lower Copper and Gold Output, New 2025 Sales Guidance

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) just released its latest operating results, highlighting a drop in copper and gold production compared to last year. At the same time, the company outlined its sales targets for 2025.

See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan.

Freeport-McMoRan’s latest production update comes on the heels of muted share price action over the past quarter, with a 5.1% one-month return and the stock trading at $41.70. Despite this, the one-year total shareholder return sits at -8.5%, reflecting a year of fading momentum, but the longer-term picture tells a different story. A 125% total return over five years shows the company has rewarded patient investors even through commodity cycles.

If you’re interested in broadening your search, now’s an ideal moment to check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for more dynamic opportunities beyond the mining sector.

With production declining and new sales targets set, investors now have to weigh whether Freeport-McMoRan’s current price offers untapped value or if the market has already factored in all future upside. Is there still a buying opportunity?

Most Popular Narrative: 10.8% Undervalued

The narrative’s fair value for Freeport-McMoRan stands at $46.77, putting it about 10.8% above the latest closing price. With analysts updating projections, the stage is set for high-stakes growth assumptions and shifting expectations.

Substantial U.S. policy tailwinds, including critical mineral designations, tariffs on imported copper, and ongoing government-industry dialogue, are driving premium domestic copper pricing. With Freeport supplying 70% of U.S. refined copper, this premium is adding $1.7 billion in annual EBITDA upside and could structurally lift revenue and profit if these differentials persist or are institutionalized.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what would need to happen for this narrative to play out? The prize: higher profit margins and industry-beating future earnings. However, the real tension lies in how bold policy-driven price assumptions and operational shifts line up with those headline fair value targets. Discover which forecasts are moving the needle in this valuation debate.

Result: Fair Value of $46.77 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing disruptions at key Indonesian assets or prolonged regulatory uncertainty could quickly shake investor confidence and derail the company’s positive valuation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative.

Build Your Own Freeport-McMoRan Narrative

If you see the outlook differently or want to run your own numbers, it only takes a few minutes to craft your personal narrative using the same data and tools. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Freeport-McMoRan.

Looking for More Investment Ideas?

Great opportunities are always just beyond your current watchlist, and the right filter can help you seize them before the crowd. Don't let the next market mover slip away. Expand your search now with these unique strategies:

• Uncover breakthrough healthcare innovation and capitalize on AI-driven disruption by screening with these 33 healthcare AI stocks to pinpoint promising companies leading medical technology advancements.
• Position yourself for potential high yields in volatile markets by starting your selection with these 20 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, connecting you to strong dividend payers with robust income streams.
• Jump on tomorrow’s blockchain breakthroughs with these 81 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks, and get ahead of the trends shaking up digital finance and enterprise technology.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com