QuidelOrtho (QDEL): Valuation Spotlight After New Rapid Flu and COVID Test Launch

QuidelOrtho (QDEL) just dropped a product update that has investors taking notice. The company is bringing out the QUICKVUE Influenza + SARS Test, a rapid, CLIA-waived solution that lets healthcare professionals quickly tell the difference between flu A, flu B, and COVID-19 from a single swab. For clinics, urgent care centers, and hospital labs, this means faster answers and potentially sharper treatment decisions. This is a real win with cold and flu season gearing up. This test slots right into the existing QUICKVUE lineup and reinforces QuidelOrtho’s goal of leading the respiratory diagnostics space. Stepping back, QuidelOrtho’s shares have struggled over the past year even as the company continues to innovate. While annual revenue has edged higher, net income remains deeply negative, and the stock has dropped nearly 38% in the past year alone. It has been a tough backdrop for diagnostics firms facing both changing testing demand and funding pressures, despite steady progress on new products like the one announced. Recent quarters have shown little in the way of sustained momentum, although the company’s value score suggests there may be more to the story than share price alone. So after this stretch of underperformance, could this new product launch be the catalyst for a rebound, or has the market already set expectations for QuidelOrtho’s future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 34.8% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative values QuidelOrtho as significantly undervalued compared to its fair value estimate, reflecting strong optimism about the company's recovery potential and future growth prospects.

Expansion into international markets such as Latin America, Asia Pacific, and underpenetrated regions like China, where differentiated technology, low market share, and a large runway for immunoassay growth exist, positions QuidelOrtho to capture increased demand stemming from global health system focus on early detection and public health surveillance. This should drive topline revenue growth.

Wondering what financial secrets justify this sizable valuation gap? The most popular narrative is built on bold projections such as a turnaround to profitability, margin improvements, and aggressive global expansion. Which core assumptions are driving this underappreciated story, and could they really propel the company to new highs? The answers might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $43.43 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent declines in COVID testing revenue and challenges from discontinued product lines could quickly undermine the bullish recovery case for QuidelOrtho.

Find out about the key risks to this QuidelOrtho narrative.

Another View: What Does the SWS DCF Model Say?

While the consensus targets suggest QuidelOrtho is undervalued, our DCF model supports that view and indicates the market price is well below its intrinsic value. Could the gap point to real upside, or are there hidden risks?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out QuidelOrtho for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own QuidelOrtho Narrative

If you want to dig into the numbers yourself or have a different take, you can piece together your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your QuidelOrtho research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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