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    Will TMHC's Push Into Charlotte Rentals Offset Concerns About Earnings and Valuation?

    Simply Wall St·09/15/2025 12:58:11
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    • Recently, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation drew attention for trading below the industry average price-to-earnings ratio at a time of expected earnings declines and, in the past, marked progress nearing completion of 148 rental homes at its Yardly City Park project in Charlotte.
    • This combination of potentially attractive valuation and ongoing expansion in the rental sector underscores the contrast between operational progress and anticipated financial headwinds.
    • We'll examine how concerns about declining earnings growth alongside Taylor Morrison's push into the Charlotte rental market could reshape its investment narrative.

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    Taylor Morrison Home Investment Narrative Recap

    To hold Taylor Morrison Home stock, you have to believe that its historically strong margins and operational resilience can offset current challenges, especially as the company faces forecasted earnings declines. The recent news of it trading below industry-average valuations, even after a sharp price increase, may not materially affect the immediate catalyst: whether Taylor Morrison can maintain earnings power while navigating softer demand and backlog erosion, right now, risk from persistent earnings pressure remains the concern to watch. Among recent developments, Taylor Morrison's near-completed Yardly City Park rental project in Charlotte stands out. This milestone could bolster its expansion into the build-to-rent segment, a relevant catalyst as the business shifts toward recurring income streams to counter slower core home sales. Yet in contrast to project progress, investors should pay close attention to the sustained decline in order activity and backlog as these metrics...

    Read the full narrative on Taylor Morrison Home (it's free!)

    Taylor Morrison Home's narrative projects $8.3 billion revenue and $874.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires a 0.4% annual revenue decline and a $32 million decrease in earnings from the current $906.5 million.

    Uncover how Taylor Morrison Home's forecasts yield a $76.00 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TMHC Community Fair Values as at Sep 2025
    TMHC Community Fair Values as at Sep 2025

    Simply Wall St Community members provided four fair value estimates for Taylor Morrison Home, ranging from US$73.74 to US$119.29 per share. While many focus on valuation, declining backlog and softening order trends remain critical for anyone looking across the company's earnings outlook, be sure to review the full spread of perspectives before deciding your next move.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Taylor Morrison Home - why the stock might be worth as much as 71% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Taylor Morrison Home Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.