Marqeta (MQ) Valuation in Focus After Profit Growth Warning from New CEO

Marqeta (MQ) just made headlines, but not entirely for reasons that excite investors. The company confirmed that Mike Milotich, their interim leader with deep financial experience, is now officially taking the CEO spot. However, this leadership move came with a clear note of caution. At a recent investor conference, Milotich outlined how two major contract renewals are likely to reduce Marqeta’s gross profit growth by 4%, with the full impact expected to hit in 2026. While new leadership can spark optimism, this transparent messaging may have set a more careful tone for investors weighing what comes next. That context partially explains the market’s reaction, with shares falling 2.3% after the company’s remarks. It is a reminder of just how much sentiment can shift in response to subtle guidance, even when headline results look good. Marqeta’s stock has still climbed 14% in the past year and is up a striking 56% year to date. There is no question that Marqeta has bounced back over the past few quarters after years of underperformance, but the near-term momentum now seems clouded by renewed risk awareness rather than unbridled growth enthusiasm. So, after this year’s rise but given the forward-looking warnings, should investors view Marqeta as undervalued relative to its future, or has the market already adjusted for what is coming?

Most Popular Narrative: 17% Undervalued

According to the most popular narrative, Marqeta is currently undervalued by 17% relative to its future prospects. Analysts see meaningful upside based on expected improvements in profitability and robust earnings expansion over the next several years.

The completed TransactPay acquisition gives Marqeta full program management and EMI capabilities in Europe. This enables entry into larger enterprise opportunities, creates uniformity of service across North America and Europe, and allows easier multi-market expansion for clients. This unlocks new revenue streams, increases take rates, and improves earnings scalability.

Curious why analysts think Marqeta deserves a premium valuation? The narrative hinges on bold financial goals, with future profit multiples that usually spark headlines. Want to be ahead of the curve? See exactly which moving pieces and growth projections drive this eye-catching fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $7.03 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, heavy reliance on a handful of major clients and intensifying competition could quickly spark volatility in Marqeta’s growth story.

Find out about the key risks to this Marqeta narrative.

Another View: Price Check Against the Sector

While one perspective sees Marqeta as undervalued, a different method checks its value by comparing its sales to those of similar industry players. On this basis, Marqeta actually looks expensive. Could different market lenses change the story?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Marqeta to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Marqeta Narrative

If you see the story differently or want your own deep dive, you can explore Marqeta's numbers and shape your assessment in just minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Marqeta research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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