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    DRDGOLD (DRD) Is Up 5.7% After Earnings Estimates Jump 80 Percent Has The Bull Case Changed?

    Simply Wall St·09/13/2025 17:43:47
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    • DRDGOLD recently received a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) after analysts raised full-year earnings estimates by 80% in the past quarter.
    • This upward revision comes as DRDGOLD has delivered a return significantly higher than the average for the Basic Materials sector so far this year.
    • We'll explore how heightened optimism about DRDGOLD's earnings outlook may impact the company's longer-term investment narrative.

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    What Is DRDGOLD's Investment Narrative?

    Owning DRDGOLD means buying into the long-term story of a company that aims to turn lower-grade gold tailings into profitable production, all while maintaining strong cash flows and a high return on equity. The recent surge in analyst optimism, with earnings estimates sharply upgraded and a record-setting return year-to-date, clearly marks a shift in sentiment. While the jump in forecasted earnings is significant and could support short-term momentum, underlying questions remain about sustainability: gold production volumes have dipped, and yields are trending lower despite greater ore throughput. Dividend payouts continue, but past dividend consistency has been patchy, which might weigh on some investors’ minds. With earnings growth well above its historical average and industry peers, the recent news sharpens the short-term catalyst, yet the main risks, production volatility and gold price sensitivity, still deserve close attention as they remain central to the DRDGOLD investment thesis.

    But with gold output volumes down and yield slipping, there are risks investors should know about.

    DRDGOLD's shares are on the way up, but they could be overextended by 41%. Uncover the fair value now.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    DRD Community Fair Values as at Sep 2025
    DRD Community Fair Values as at Sep 2025
    Seven different Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for DRDGOLD range from ZAR11.62 to ZAR74.01 per share. While opinions are split widely, especially at the upper end, keep in mind ongoing uncertainty around production volumes when weighing these diverse views on future performance.

    Explore 7 other fair value estimates on DRDGOLD - why the stock might be worth 48% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own DRDGOLD Narrative

    Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.