JinkoSolar (NYSE:JKS) Valuation in Focus After Robust Global Shipments and Upbeat Growth Guidance

JinkoSolar Holding (NYSE:JKS) just caught the market’s attention with its latest update, and if you’ve been on the fence about this solar player, now is a good time to tune in. Management delivered a double dose of news: first, the company revealed first-half module shipments of 41.8 GW, with over 60% heading to customers outside China. Then, executives rolled out full-year guidance, projecting up to 100 GW in shipments, signaling a company not just keeping pace with global solar demand but sprinting ahead. Couple these figures with plans to expand into energy storage, and you have a narrative that investors can’t ignore. Over the past year, the stock responded in kind, up an impressive 47%. Even looking at the momentum of the past three months, shares jumped 28%, reflecting building optimism. There have been some bumps along the way, including a poorer start to the year, but sentiment appears to have shifted following the shipment results and guidance updates. In context, JinkoSolar’s longer-term track record has been much more mixed, but the recent surge suggests the market may be rethinking the company’s growth trajectory. So, after this surge and an upbeat growth outlook, is JinkoSolar Holding now trading below its true worth, or has the market already priced in these aggressive expansion plans?

Most Popular Narrative: 33% Undervalued

The prevailing narrative currently values JinkoSolar Holding as significantly undervalued, with the consensus view suggesting room to run if earnings and growth forecasts are delivered over the next several years.

“The company is capitalizing on the increasing demand for high-power products, particularly third-generation TOPCon products with enhanced efficiency and performance, expected to boost revenue through premium pricing opportunities and market share gains.”

Curious how analysts arrive at such a bullish price target? The answer hinges on ambitious projections for future sales, profit margins and a valuation multiple that is rarely seen outside of high-growth tech. Want to see what numbers are fueling expectations of a dramatic re-rating? Find out the specific and surprising assumptions behind this valuation narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $37.22 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, setbacks such as ongoing trade policy shifts and sliding U.S. demand could challenge JinkoSolar’s forecast and put recent optimism to the test.

Find out about the key risks to this JinkoSolar Holding narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Model

Looking from another angle, our DCF model paints a very different picture. This approach weighs the company’s expected cash flows, and in this case, suggests the shares are significantly undervalued compared to current trading levels. Which method better reflects reality?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out JinkoSolar Holding for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own JinkoSolar Holding Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the data on your own terms, you can build a fresh take in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your JinkoSolar Holding research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more smart investment ideas?

Don’t let unique opportunities pass by. The Simply Wall Street Screener gives you the edge when seeking your next standout stock or bold portfolio move.

• Uncover tomorrow’s big players by scanning undervalued businesses with strong cash flows using our undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
• Spot the potential of healthcare leaders powered by artificial intelligence, and get ahead of the curve with our healthcare AI stocks.
• Target steady returns and stability by filtering for companies offering robust yields through our dividend stocks with yields > 3%.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com