These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) share price is up 89% in the last five years, slightly above the market return. It's also good to see that the stock is up 7.6% in a year.
After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the five years of share price growth, Ternium moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd hope to see the share price to rise.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Ternium has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Ternium will grow revenue in the future.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Ternium the TSR over the last 5 years was 172%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
Ternium shareholders gained a total return of 18% during the year. But that was short of the market average. It's probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 22% over five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Ternium better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Ternium you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.