Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | The extension of tariffs between China and the US brings about a time window to stimulate consumption, and favorable policies are frequent

[Anatomy Dashboard]

The variable tariffs between China and the US have been temporarily eliminated, and the global stock market is rising collectively. Hong Kong stocks fluctuated throughout the day and ended up rising 0.29% at the end of the day.

Yesterday, I was still worried that the tariffs will change when they expire; today they have come to fruition. On August 12, China and the US issued the “Joint Declaration on Sino-US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks”. The US side promised to continue suspending the implementation of the 24% reciprocal tariff for 90 days from now on. The Chinese side also promised to continue to suspend the implementation of 24% additional tariffs on the US and related non-tariff countermeasures for 90 days from the same day. China and the US have basically figured out the cards each other can play and the effects of playing each card themselves. Both sides have made it clear that “peace is good, fight is two losses.” Of course, the background is all about strength: China's innovation around US chip restrictions is far easier than it is for the US to get rid of its dependence on China's rare earths. Anyway, of course, everyone was very happy with this result, and both parties were able to have fun for another three months. US Christmas items can now be guaranteed. In terms of sentiment, insurance stocks on the Hong Kong side all showed positive results. China Taibao (02601) and China Taiping (00966) both rose by more than 5%. The securities category Guotai Junan International (01788) also rose nearly 8%.

America's situation is actually even more difficult. Israel's forcible occupation of Gaza has already had serious consequences. The world's largest sovereign wealth fund, the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund with a volume of 2 trillion US dollars, said today (August 12) that due to the situation in the Palestinian Gaza Strip and the West Bank, the fund is continuing to review investment in Israel and is expected to withdraw from more Israeli companies. By making such a big move, Israel eventually had to play and lose itself; the withdrawal of capital was the most terrifying thing. The ripple effect is that Israel's economy cannot handle it; it also needs blood transfusions from the US. America itself is also in debt, so it needs to go through tariffs everywhere to reduce the world.

Therefore, the top priority is not to be consumed any more. A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine is imminent. At the same time, the interests of giants such as BlackRock in Ukraine must also be fully protected. You need to know that if all of these lands with minerals are occupied by Russia, then all investments will go to waste. But to be honest, it is difficult for the current US-Russia talks to come to fruition; otherwise, the Croat Palace wouldn't say they want to continue talks on Russian soil next time. The US also had low expectations. Trump said that Putin would be an exploratory meeting, and that both Russia and Ukraine must relinquish their territory to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Ukrainian President Zelensky told European leaders that they must reject any solution proposed by US President Trump that Ukraine relinquishes more territory, but Russia can keep some of the occupied territories. It can be seen that Zelensky's attitude is softening, but Europe should and will not agree; it must continue to support Ukraine.

China is very calm about the US release of Nvidia's reduced version of the chip. Recently, China Central Radio and Television's new media account “Yuyuan Tan Tian” published an article naming the H20 chip as “not environmentally friendly, not advanced, and even less safe,” and is not a “good choice.” Today it is rumored that Chinese companies may avoid using Nvidia H20 chips. This directly catalyzed domestic chip replacement. The A-share Cambrian (688256.SH) rose and stopped at record highs. The Hong Kong stock side's Huahong Semiconductor (01347) and SMIC (00981) both rose more than 5%. Judging from the performance, Huahong Semiconductor's revenue guidance for the third quarter was 10% to 13% quarterly. The gross margin was expected to be between 10% and 12%, compared to the second quarter. The revenue guide was 1.1 and 1.8 percentage points higher than the bank's and market expectations. It can be seen that the main adjustments in these two days were not bad. Worried about the impact of the H20, if they all use domestic chips, the logic will have to be revised again. Also, the market once again revealed the DeepSeek-R2 release time window. The most recent time window points to between August 15 and 30. This once again provides favorable support for domestic computing power chips. The 2Q25 global silicon wafer shipment area increased year on month, hitting a new high since 3Q23, indicating that some fields other than storage have begun to recover, and demand for silicon wafers for AI data center chips is still strong.

Fosun Wealth International Holdings Limited and the Hong Kong Web 3.0 Standardization Association signed a strategic agreement on August 7 to work together to build a safe, efficient and compliant real-world asset (RWA) ecosystem. According to Tencent News's “Frontline”, Fosun has decided to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong, and has formed a complete stable license application team. If you can get a license, this cake will be big. Today, Fosun International (00656) surged more than 13%.

Favorable consumer policies are frequent. Nine departments have issued the “Implementation Plan for Service Industry Operators Loan Interest Rate Discount Policy”; three departments: Interest rates are discounted for single purchases of 50,000 yuan or more, with a spending quota of 50,000 yuan as the upper limit. It is expected that there will be some stimulus to individual consumer stocks in the future.

Consumer electronics are estimated to have benefited greatly. Apple was exempted from tariffs due to promises to invest an additional 100 billion US dollars in the US manufacturing industry, and the market continues to be hyped. In August, the stock stock Hongteng Precision (06088) rose once again by nearly 6%; BYD Electronics (00285) and Gaowei Electronics (01415) both increased by more than 3%.

Consumer dairy products combined with the maternity subsidy policy were also very catalytic. The Australian and Asian Group (02425) surged by more than 43%, the modern animal husbandry industry (01117) rose more than 10%, and Youran Animal Husbandry (09858) rose more than 5%.

The liquor category is also gaining momentum. On August 8, Wu Xiangdong, chairman of Zhenjiu Lidu Group, launched his first live broadcast and officially launched its first high-end craft beer product called “Bull Market News.” The retail price is 88 yuan/bottle, announcing that Zhenjiu Li Du has officially entered the beer field. Bullmarket Beer took three years to make. The ingredients were selected from American Yakima Valley hops, Canadian and Australian high-grade barley malt, German and Belgian yeast, and high-quality water sources from Mogan Mountain in China. With a brand position of “Open the Bull Market, Good Luck,” any change is a good thing. In terms of liquor, in June, Zhenjiu Li Du launched a strategic single product “Dazhen Zhenjiu”. The price was 888 yuan, and Yao Anna was officially announced as the liquor “ambassador” of liquor. Today, Zhenjiu Li Du (06979) surged 8%. It should be expected that it will enter beer and that the chairman will personally go down to build a personal IP, which may lead to an improvement in performance.

In July, several car companies were ranked in the NEV TOP10 list. Xiaopeng Motors (09868) became the “dark horse” in July. Retail sales of 33,717 vehicles led to a sharp increase of 263.0% year over year and 9.4% month-on-month, while retail sales of Geely Auto (00175) and Zero Run (09863) doubled year on year, increasing 112.1% and 106.1% respectively.

The US CPI data for July, which will be released tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, is worth paying attention to, because this is the first data after changing the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director. It will determine whether the Federal Reserve can finalize interest rate cuts in September. Investment bankers' predictions for the year-on-year increase in core CPI basically fall within the 2.9% -3.1 range.

[Section Focus]

Hohhot City will implement a new fee program tomorrow: Starting August 15, Hohhot will officially implement the three brain-computer interface fee programs (intrusive placement fee, take-out fee, and non-intrusive adaptation fee) set up by the National Health Insurance Administration to provide medical insurance payment channels for patients with fever and high-grade paraplegia.

Advance pricing in many places: Previously, Hubei, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu had announced specific price standards (such as the Hubei intrusive implantation fee of 6,552 yuan/time). The launch in Hohhot marks the entry of national promotion into the practical stage, directly opening up the “last mile” of technology from laboratory to clinical practice.

It can be seen that the brain-computer interface has been officially incorporated into social security operations. The main types of Hong Kong stocks are: Minimally Invasive Brain Science (02172) and Nanjing Panda Electronics (00553).

[Individual Stock Mining]

Dongyue Group (00189): Air conditioning sales increase, refrigerant price increases unchanged

According to Fluorine Online data, R32's latest corporate price is close to 60,000 yuan/ton. By mid-July, retail sales of offline systems in the domestic air conditioning market had increased 19.63% year on year, and the corresponding retail volume increased by 16.15% year on year. Dongyue Group announced a profit forecast for the first half of the year. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to company owners for the year ending June 30, 2025 may increase sharply by about 150% year over year.

Comment: Sales of air conditioners have increased, refrigerant prices have not changed, and demand for air conditioners is expected to remain high in the new cold year. The company benefits from the continued improvement in the refrigerant boom, and the performance is expected to enter an upward cycle. In June-August, the downstream air conditioning industry maintained a year-on-year growth trend. Demand was strong, providing support for refrigerant prices. Refrigerant prices have been rising steadily since 2025. The demand for refrigerants has entered the peak season, and there is strong certainty about price increases. The company's own advantages are prominent, and it is expected to fully benefit as a leader in the fluorosilicon industry. Dongyue Group is a leading enterprise with R22 and R32 production capacity and quota in China. The company has about 220,000 tons of R22 production capacity and 60,000 tons of R32 production capacity. In terms of quotas, according to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, in 2025, the company has an R22 quota of 44,900 tons, accounting for about 29.46% of the total quota, the largest quota in the country; it has an R32 quota of 56,300 tons, accounting for about 20.09% of the total quota, second only to the quota share of Juhua shares; the company has a total production quota of 129,900 tons of second-generation and third-generation refrigerants, which is among the highest in the country. The price of R22 is expected to rise significantly. Dongyue Group is the leader in the second-generation refrigerant industry. It has a large R22 quota and is expected to fully enjoy the dividends of price increases. The company is the world's largest supplier of PTFE materials and has become a key material for humanoid robot tracks. Most of the company's R22/R142b production capacity is used for fluoropolymer raw materials. Domestic demand is high, and it may support prices for non-refrigeration applications in the medium to long term. As refrigerant prices continue to rise in a tight balance between supply and demand, the company's gross profit and net profit of refrigerant products continue to increase. Refrigerants are in a long-term boom cycle, and the company is expected to fully benefit as a leader in the fluorosilicon industry. At the same time, with the gradual increase in export demand in September-October, the market may further boost expectations.