Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | The plot of the Middle East war is reversed, and various sectors will usher in a repair window

[Anatomy Dashboard]

The war in the Middle East is quite “brain-burning”. Last night, Iran's armed forces issued a statement announcing a missile attack on the US military's Udeid air base in Qatar. Everyone thought Iran had stood up; they didn't expect a direct major reversal of the plot. Following the plot, Hong Kong stocks jumped 2.06%.

According to CCTV news, after Iran's attack, Trump said on social platforms that Iran's response to America's destruction of its nuclear facilities was very weak, and thanked Iran for informing the US in advance. US President Trump said in an article on TruthSocial at around 1:00 a.m. US time on Tuesday (24th) that the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Iran has already entered into force, urging all parties not to violate it. Israel officially announced that a cease-fire with Iran has entered into force. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu issued a statement confirming the US plan to agree to a cease-fire with Iran, but added that if Iran violates the agreement, he will respond harshly. According to CCTV news reports, we learned on June 23, local time, that Iran has accepted the cease-fire plan with Israel proposed by the United States.

As can be seen, all three parties have officially announced their agreement to a cease-fire. The next step is to begin peace talks. The Middle East conflict has come to an end in a short time. Why did the story go this way? First of all, the US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities and Iran's return to the US military's Udeid air base in Qatar are shows, because they all notified each other before the operation, and none of them caused any substantial damage. The goal is to give domestic accounts, and the US also gives Israel an account.

Second, from an essential point of view, whether it is Israel or the US, it is impossible for Iran to completely compromise through bombing. It is even less realistic to send ground forces. It is very difficult in terms of geography, strategic depth, number of troops, etc. Moreover, Iran's real nuclear deterrent has not been destroyed; these are all impossible tasks. If they continue to bombard each other like this, Israel will definitely not be able to afford it, and the US will also be very embarrassed and in a dilemma. Iran, on the other hand, is under threat and can only compromise. Because they are also afraid that the other party will take extreme measures. I have to say that the stock market has indeed been predicted ahead of time; the Israeli stock market's record high shows that the war will not worsen.

Furthermore, after bombing Iran, Trump said he had destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities, including US Vice President Vance: Iran cannot use its existing equipment to manufacture nuclear weapons. Although it is a lie, it is actually a step down: since you have no nuclear weapons, then you can start peace talks. As to why Israel agreed, because there is no good way, the US can never be forced to take advantage of this ability. Besides, if you keep playing, you won't get better results. Why don't you just relax and get back to your blood before talking.

For Trump, there isn't much time left for him. According to the schedule, Powell will testify on the semi-annual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee at 22:00 Beijing time tonight. Meanwhile, at the same time tomorrow, he will also “switch” to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs to deliver a similar testimony speech. Trump must end the chaos in the Middle East before Powell gives his testimony, thereby changing Powell's attitude, so that the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates as soon as possible, and at least the inflationary factor should be mitigated. It is estimated that Powell's attitude should change this time.

After all, people have already begun to report: On June 23, EST, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that now is the time to consider adjusting policy interest rates. If US inflation continues to be moderate, it will support the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as July.

Now that all parties have announced a cease-fire, there is no logic related to shipping and oil and gas. Shandong Molong (00568) and Dexiang Shipping (02510) both dropped by more than 20%.

Naturally, the market is moving in the direction of restoration. The first to bear the brunt is big finance. From the Lujiazui Forum, to Cross-border Wealth Management 2.0 and the recent Davos Forum, etc., they all conveyed the benefits of the industry. Insurance stocks mentioned yesterday, such as China Taiping (00966), China Financial Insurance (02328), China Insurance (01339), and China Ping An (02318), all rose by more than 5%.

Securities and futures are also rapidly following suit today. Hongye Futures (03678): Full license advantage establishes competitive barriers. It has full license qualifications such as commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, and asset management, covering the entire futures and derivatives industry chain services. The company is a futures company held by Jiangsu state-owned assets. There are expectations of state-owned enterprise reform. If Soho Holding Group may inject high-quality assets, it will face pressure to lift the 42.83% share capital ban in August this year, but the controlling shareholders promised to extend the lockdown period until 2026 to effectively ease market concerns. Today's increase is over 14%.

The direction of securities is also more likely to be restructured. For example, China Galaxy (06881) and CICC (03908) are both brokerage firms under Central Huijin. If the two are merged, the total assets will reach about 1.40 trillion yuan (2024 three-quarter report data), making them the third-largest brokerage firm after CITIC Securities and Cathay Pacific Junan+Haitong Securities, enhancing market voice. From a business perspective, CICC's investment banking business is outstanding. China Galaxy's brokerage business is dominant. After the merger, it can integrate business lines to form a full chain of service capabilities. Today, it rose by more than 8% and 5%, respectively.

I mentioned yesterday that on June 22, local time, Tesla launched the long-awaited driverless taxi Robotaxi service in Texas. Tesla surged more than 10%. Hello announced its official entry into the Robotaxi circuit. “Shanghai Zaifu Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd.”, which was jointly initiated by Hello, Ant Group, and Ningde Times through its investors, was registered in Shanghai.

Volkswagen also recently announced RoboTaxi's strategic goal for the first time - to launch the autonomous vehicle ID.buzzad in 2026 to surpass Tesla on this track. The Zhejiang Shibao (01057) mentioned once again surged more than 30%, while other smart driving categories such as Youjiao Innovation (02431) and Nexteer (01316) all increased by more than 6%.

The next news about solid-state batteries continues. The lithium sulfide and sulfide solid-state battery technology conference will be held on June 24-25, and the solid-state battery conference and silicon-based anode production innovation conference will be held on July 3. Longpan Technology (02465) is currently testing high-nickel precursors and lithium-manganese-based precursors for solid-state batteries. Sankin Lithium has also launched D series high-nickel tri-precursor materials specially developed for solid-state batteries. Through optimization measures such as element doping and structural adjustment, they are more stable, safer, and more long-lasting, which can better solve the problems of cathode material cracking and material decomposition at high temperature in solid state batteries. Today's increase was more than 13%; other varieties of Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) rose more than 5%.

Apple (AAPL.US) China has now launched a national supplement discount, which only supports the Apple Store online store (Beijing delivery address) and retail stores (Shanghai). The online store also offers 24 month interest-free installments. According to reports, the maximum discount for purchasing an iPhone, iPad, or Apple Watch with a specified configuration is 500 yuan. The total price of the product must be less than 6,000 yuan; the maximum discount for qualifying Mac models is 2,000 yuan. Gaowei Electronics (01415) rose more than 7%, Qiu Titanium Technology (01478) rose more than 5%, Sunyu Optics (02382), and Ruisheng Technology (02018) rose more than 3%.

Lei Jun, founder and chairman of Xiaomi (01810), said that with the launch of the YU7 this time, compared to last year's SU7, there is indeed more confidence. After the YU7 technology was released last month, the enthusiasm of users also far exceeded the Group's expectations. YU7's user capital retention was three times that of SU7 during the same period, and he expected YU7 to be as popular as SU7. Today's increase is 3.74%.

(Rongchang Biotech 09995, mentioned yesterday by individual stock nuggets) surged by more than 16% today. Its core product, Taixip, was compensated for the term of patent rights granted by the State Intellectual Property Office. The number of days of compensation is 1,827 days, and the patent protection period will be extended to 2032, which will significantly increase its market share. Pharmaceutical Junuo (02126): CAR-T products have been approved for listing in Macau, which is expected to drive an increase in sales revenue. Today, it also surged more than 18%.

It is expected that other segments of the market will also be repaired in the future, such as robots, AI, etc.

[Section Focus]

On June 24, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on organizing the 2025 NEV consumer season in a thousand counties and towns. The event period will be from July to December 2025.

Among them, it is proposed that all regions should promote pilot work on automobile distribution and consumption reform according to local conditions, and promote organic integration of NEV consumer season activities with pilot creation work. Plan and carry out activities such as special promotion of intelligent connected new energy vehicles, test drive experiences, etc., to steadily promote the commercial application of high-end intelligent driving vehicles on the premise that they are safe, controllable, and compliant with the law. Innovate to create diverse automotive aftermarket consumption scenarios such as car modifications, traditional classic cars, motorhome camping, and auto racing, promote the integrated development of business, tourism, culture, sports and health, and extend the automobile consumption chain.

The policy has been catalyzed once again, and NEV stocks are expected to become active again. The main products are Xiaopeng Motor (09868), Ideal Auto (02015), Zero Sports Auto (09863), BYD (01211), and Geely (00175).

[Individual Stock Mining]

Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388): Multiple data explosions, single-quarter results reach record highs

Recently, more than 20 companies expressed their intention to go public in Hong Kong via the Science and Enterprise Hotline. The company's revenue and other revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was HK$6.857 billion, up 32% year on year; profit attributable to shareholders was HK$4,077 billion, up 37% year on year.

Comment: Multiple data has exploded. Since this year, the average daily turnover of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange securities market has exceeded HK$240 billion, an increase of more than 17 times over HK$13 billion in 2000, which has witnessed the continuous growth of the Hong Kong market and investor base over the past 25 years. The growth in the derivatives market on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has been even more remarkable. The average daily turnover since this year has reached 1.76 million contracts, far more than 37,500 contracts in 2000. The company's revenue and profit for the first quarter of this year both beat expectations, and single-quarter results reached record highs.

The high growth in performance is mainly due to the marked improvement in the investment climate, driven by artificial intelligence and other innovative developments. Mainland investors are more active in the offshore market, which has led to a sharp increase in the turnover of the Hong Kong stock spot market.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO market also continues to be active, and the amount of IPOs raised currently ranks first in the world. Since this year, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has completed 31 initial public offerings, raising more than HK$88.4 billion, strengthening Hong Kong's position as the world's preferred financing market. Since 2000, the number of Hong Kong listed companies has increased from 790 to over 2,600. Mainland enterprises listed in Hong Kong account for 81% of the total market value. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is actively preparing to launch a “Science and Technology Enterprise Hotline” to facilitate mainland listed technology and biotechnology companies to apply for listing in Hong Kong, and help companies attract more large-scale enterprises to go public in Hong Kong, thereby earning more revenue from listing fees.

Exploring ASEAN and Middle East markets: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will further strengthen promotion efforts in ASEAN and the Middle East, explore cooperation opportunities, including ETF listings, and strive to increase holdings on Canadian overseas accredited exchanges to facilitate the second listing of more overseas companies in Hong Kong. The returns to the company's shareholders are stable.

After 25 years of development, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has evolved from a local exchange to a rapidly growing international capital market, providing investment opportunities for global capital.