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    Can Analyst Upgrades for Century Aluminum (CENX) Reshape Its Competitive Edge in the Sector?

    Simply Wall St·09/14/2025 16:05:03
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    • In the past week, Century Aluminum was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) after analysts raised full-year earnings estimates by 15.7%, signalling improved forecast expectations.
    • This shift in sentiment highlights growing analyst confidence in the company’s ability to capitalize on sector trends and outperform industry peers.
    • We'll explore how this heightened analyst outlook may influence Century Aluminum's investment narrative, especially in light of its expansion efforts.

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    Century Aluminum Investment Narrative Recap

    Investors in Century Aluminum need to believe in the continued strength of U.S. aluminum demand and the persistence of supportive trade policies, as these are key to the company's production expansion and earnings prospects. While the recent 15.7% rise in full-year earnings estimates and a Zacks Rank upgrade reflect stronger near-term analyst sentiment, they do not directly address Century’s major risk: any potential shift in Section 232 tariffs remains the most significant threat to its current operating advantage. Among Century's recent announcements, the plan to restart over 50,000 metric tons of idled production at Mt. Holly is pivotal. This expansion, involving a US$50 million investment and increasing U.S. primary aluminum output by nearly 10%, is closely aligned with catalysts tied to reshoring supply chains and stronger domestic demand, both crucial for supporting improved forecasts and long-term returns. By contrast, investors should pay close attention to ongoing policy uncertainties that could impact Midwest aluminum premiums and...

    Read the full narrative on Century Aluminum (it's free!)

    Century Aluminum's outlook anticipates $3.0 billion in revenue and $479.3 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario requires an annual revenue growth rate of 7.6% and a $367.9 million increase in earnings from the current level of $111.4 million.

    Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $27.00 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    CENX Community Fair Values as at Sep 2025
    CENX Community Fair Values as at Sep 2025

    Simply Wall St Community members’ fair value estimates for Century Aluminum range widely from US$22.13 to US$90.27, based on 3 independent analyses. These diverse views reflect differing expectations for U.S. policy stability and domestic demand that remain critical for the company’s future performance.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.