Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | Jackson Hole Annual Meeting Tests Powell's Market Entering a Phase of Diversification

[Anatomy Dashboard]

The peripheral situation has become complicated again. Various conflicts have resumed, and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting also made the market quite worried. As a result, the Hong Kong stock market fluctuation weakened today and closed down 0.24%.

After the summit talks between the US and Russia, the fundamental issue has not been resolved; it is still time to fight. On August 21, the Ukrainian foreign minister claimed that the Russian military launched a large-scale air strike against Ukraine, causing losses to US companies and casualties. According to another report, Ukraine revealed the new “Flamingo” missile, which has a range of more than 3,000 kilometers and is superior to long-range weapons provided by the West, and mass production has begun. Fighting has resumed in the Middle East. According to reports on the 20th local time, the Israel Defense Forces said that five divisions composed of tens of thousands of soldiers will participate in the planned Israeli attack on Gaza City.

The two gold stocks mentioned yesterday continued to strengthen. For example, China Gold International (02099) rose by nearly 5% today, while the other one, Zhou Shengsheng (00116), rose more than 7%. Gold stocks have not generally risen; there have also been declines.

From August 21 to 23, local time, the annual meeting of global central banks will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on Friday will attract much attention. Because the current situation is very unfavorable to it, the Trump administration is subtly carrying out a comprehensive personnel “clean-up” of the Federal Reserve. Of the seven Fed members, apart from Powell, Trump itself has two “supporters”: Governor Waller and Vice Chairman of Financial Supervisory Control Bowman. Currently, it is still “attracting” one seat, “replacing” one seat, and “threatening” two seats.

If Trump “takes control” of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, it will mean that the remaining 12 regional Federal Reserve presidents may actually all be replaced by Trump's will. In this way, by integrating finance and the Federal Reserve, it can be manipulated at will, and private wealth can be greatly enhanced by the way.

Therefore, Powell's last major conference speech before leaving office will be critical. Should he choose rigidity or compromise? It's hard to say; it actually depends on whether the deep government behind it still has control. Judging from the extremely weak US labor market data released recently, there should be no suspense about interest rate cuts in September; what is important is the attitude towards future interest rate cuts. As long as it is revealed that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times this year, then they are dovish, and the market will be optimistic; conversely, if they still talk about inflation, they are hawks. The answers will soon be revealed.

On August 20, at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange 2025 Interim Results Conference, Hong Kong Stock Exchange Group CEO Chen Yiting said that on the issue of extending trading hours, NASDAQ plans to implement a 5-day-a-week trading mechanism in the second half of 2026. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will adhere to the principle of prudence and progressivity, and conduct research based on the actual situation in the local market on the basis of fully drawing on the experience of international peers. I feel like 24-hour trading is a bit exaggerated. Apart from being beneficial to the quantification of machine trading, it is very unfriendly to investors. Furthermore, all kinds of delivery systems have not been perfected, and how to connect with A-shares is also a problem. The stock market didn't respond either.

According to uncertain market information, China is considering allowing the use of RMB-backed stablecoins for the first time to promote wider adoption of the RMB globally. If true, this is a major shift in its stance on digital assets. RMB stablecoins are the most effective way to internationalize the RMB. Stablecoin concept stocks related to Hong Kong stocks made a collective effort in the early stages. For example, Zhongan Online (06060) rose nearly 7%, and Cathay Pacific Junan International (01788) and Huaxing Capital Holdings (01911) rose more than 4%, but the continued strength should be companies that can obtain a Hong Kong stock license. In the early stages, only single-digit licenses were granted, which is a scarce resource; this is hard to guess.

Recently, four departments, including the National Health Commission, the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, the National Disease Control and Prevention Administration, and the China Disabled Persons' Federation, jointly issued the “Guiding Opinions on Promoting Ear and Hearing Health”. Seven main tasks were proposed. Promote the application of data information and artificial intelligence technology in the field of ear and hearing health. The healthcare sector was also catalyzed. Jingdang Health (09886) rose more than 21%, and Zhitong Gold Stock Ping An Good Doctor (01833) rose more than 11% in July.

On August 19, China Railway Group issued a tender notice for the second batch of high-speed trains in 2025. A total of 210 groups (174 trains) were tendered, and the number of tenders exceeded market expectations. The number of single tenders this time was the highest in nearly 5 years, exceeding market expectations. The market expects that there will also be local railway and intercity railway EMU tenders in the second half of the year, so the annual tender volume can be even more optimistic. CRRC (01766) and Times Electric (03898) both rose more than 5%.

Yesterday, we talked about the shift of capital from US stocks to the defensive category. The pharmaceutical sector is also a typical defensive category. Today, the sector is also very strong. At this stage, it is also clearly divided. Attention should be paid to finding varieties with potential, such as Carvykti, the legendary biological core product of Kingsley Biotech (01548), achieved net sales of 439 million US dollars in the second quarter of 25, an increase of 136% over the previous year. This trend is very strong. There are also Kangzhe Pharmaceutical (00867) and Columbotai Bio-B (06990) of Zhitong Gold Stock in August.

Earlier, when we talked about the acceleration of strong models, this was the case with Great Wall Motor (02333). According to the official account last night, orders for the Haval Raptor 2026 model exceeded 21,856 units in 24 hours. Earlier, on August 11, Great Wall Motor's new Tank 500 Smart Share Edition began pre-sale. This time, a total of two versions of the new Tank 500 were launched. Among them, the pre-sale price of the Hi4-Z Smart Edition was 388,800 yuan, the pre-sale price of the Hi4-T Smart Edition was 36.00 yuan. The 24-hour pre-sale order exceeded 11,000 units, and the first weekend of the pre-sale order exceeded 1,932 units. Today it is up more than 6%.

There is another JS Global Life (01691) warning, but the changes are mainly due to the fact that in order to expand the Asia-Pacific market, the Group's sales costs and administrative support continued to increase in the first half of 2025, including but not limited to strengthening brand image and consumer awareness, promoting core products and new products, enhancing omnichannel distribution capabilities, and increasing sales teams and administrative staff. This is equivalent to spending money first, but the return later should be good. The Asia Pacific and US business grew rapidly, rising nearly 9% today.

On August 20, Gangzai Robotics (00370) joined hands with Guangdong Tiantai Robotics, Shandong Future Robotics, and Shandong Future Data Technology to jointly sign the world's first order agreement for 10,000 intelligent humanoid robots. This order was the largest in the humanoid robot industry. At the same time, it enabled the actual implementation of the humanoid robot and realized large-scale commercial use, opening up a market example for the industry. Today it's up almost 13%.

[Section Focus]

On August 21, the Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference in Beijing. Press spokesman He Yongqian responded to the reason why China's foreign trade maintained a high growth rate in the first seven months. According to data, in the first seven months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 25.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.5% over the previous year, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points faster than in the first half of the year. Among them, the key point is that China's imports and exports to emerging and other markets increased by 5% in the first seven months, accounting for 65.5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous year. Among them, imports and exports to ASEAN and Africa increased by 9.4% and 17.2% respectively, which were significantly higher than overall; imports and exports to the “Belt and Road” countries increased by 5.5%, accounting for 51.7%.

The rapid development of trade in the ASEAN direction means that shipping in this direction has great potential. The main types are Sinotrans (00598), Haifeng International (01308), and Dexiang Shipping (02510).

[Individual Stock Mining]

Haifeng International (01308): Expanding regional container ships, Southeast Asian countries enjoy dividends due to rapid development

The company's revenue for the first half of the year was approximately US$1,664.5 million, up 28.0% year on year; gross profit was about US$669.4 million, up 66.3% year on year, gross margin rose from 31.0% to 40.2%; profit was US$633.4 million, up 79.5% year on year. The company's mid-term dividend payout ratio is 71%, and the annualized dividend ratio is 9.7%.

Comment: The company's net profit surged in the first half of the year. The increase in revenue was mainly due to a 7.3% increase in container traffic and a 22.8% increase in average freight. Demand in the Asian region is strong and supply is limited, and freight rates have risen significantly year over year. Haifeng International is expected to fully benefit from the rapid increase in cargo volume in the region. The company's volume of goods continued to grow rapidly in the second quarter, and freight rates remained high. The gross profit margin and net interest rate improved sharply year-on-year in the first half of the year.

In the second quarter, the company completed container shipping volume of 1.034 million TEU, an increase of 7.7% over the previous year, and 1H25 completed a 7.3% year-on-year increase in container shipping volume. The 2Q25 freight rate remained high year on year. After deducting class exchange revenue, the company's revenue for a single box was 756 US dollars/TEU, a decrease of 6.0% month-on-month and +14.5% year-on-year. The CCFI Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia route freight indices for the second quarter were +32.7%, 8.2%, and 10.5%, respectively.

The company is a leading shipping logistics company in Asia, providing integrated transportation and logistics solutions. The construction of new ships will allow the Group to expand its container fleet to meet the growing demand for the Group's operations.

Regional container ships were added. Following the previous order for 10 1,800 TEU feeder ships, the company recently returned to Yellow Sea Shipbuilding and ordered 4 more 2,700 TEU container ships. The maximum cost of each ship was US$38.18 million, and the total cost was up to US$152.7 million. The company's mid-term dividend rate is about 70%, and dividends are attractive. The supply trend continues to be tight in the small ship market below 3,000 TEU where the company is located; benefiting from the economic growth of Southeast Asian countries and continuous industrial transfers within the Asian region, the company's demand is expected to remain strong.