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To be a shareholder in UGI right now, you need to believe that the company can balance near-term challenges, like demand declines across its LPG and propane segments, against opportunities in rate increases, renewable investments, and operational efficiencies. The newly secured US$300 million revolving loan facility improves UGI’s liquidity and debt flexibility, but is unlikely to substantially change the headline short-term catalyst of pending Pennsylvania rate approvals or the biggest ongoing risk of long-term demand erosion in its core fuels business.
The recent cessation of share repurchases is noteworthy in this context, as it highlights the company's focus on managing capital commitments amid tightening profit margins and elevated leverage. This move ties directly to ongoing free cash flow challenges and the need to prioritize debt and investment flexibility over immediate shareholder returns as UGI positions for its next phase of capital allocation. In contrast, investors should be aware of how persistent demand declines in key European and US markets could limit margin recovery in the coming years...
Read the full narrative on UGI (it's free!)
UGI's narrative projects $9.0 billion revenue and $794.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.0% yearly revenue growth and a $376.3 million earnings increase from $418.0 million.
Uncover how UGI's forecasts yield a $41.00 fair value, a 18% upside to its current price.
Simply Wall St Community members have set five fair value targets for UGI stock, ranging from US$31.87 to US$58.74 per share, capturing wide variations in outlook. Several participants point to customer attrition and fossil fuel demand decline as core issues, which could weigh on longer-term earnings and the company's ability to sustain dividends, make sure to review these alternative views.
Explore 5 other fair value estimates on UGI - why the stock might be worth as much as 69% more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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