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    Middleby (MIDD) Reveals Lower Q2 Earnings and Major Buyback Is the Capital Strategy Shifting?

    Simply Wall St·08/13/2025 07:03:11
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    • Middleby recently reported its second quarter 2025 earnings, showing year-over-year declines in both sales and net income, and issued updated revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter and year, alongside disclosing a significant share buyback completion totaling 6.48 million shares for US$903.43 million.
    • While earnings and revenue softened compared to last year, the recently completed share buyback reduces outstanding shares and may influence future earnings per share calculations.
    • With management providing new full-year guidance and completing a major buyback, we'll examine how these actions affect Middleby's investment outlook.

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    Middleby Investment Narrative Recap

    To be a Middleby shareholder, you need to believe in the long-term adoption of smart kitchen and automation solutions, areas that management continues to prioritize. The recent Q2 earnings miss and full-year revenue guidance update do not materially affect the most important short-term catalyst, which remains capturing delayed replacement cycles as customer capital spending resumes. However, the biggest risk, reliance on large QSR customers facing industry headwinds, remains unchanged and is worth monitoring closely. The just-completed buyback of over 6.48 million shares for US$903.43 million stands out, especially as it reduces share count and could impact future per-share metrics. While this action might support near-term valuations, the underlying earnings softness highlights the continued challenge of driving organic growth as end-market demand remains muted. But investors should not ignore the ongoing risk of dependence on large QSRs facing reduced traffic and inflationary pressures…

    Read the full narrative on Middleby (it's free!)

    Middleby's narrative projects $4.2 billion revenue and $539.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.3% yearly revenue growth and a $114.2 million earnings increase from $424.8 million currently.

    Uncover how Middleby's forecasts yield a $153.00 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MIDD Earnings & Revenue Growth as at Aug 2025
    MIDD Earnings & Revenue Growth as at Aug 2025

    Fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$110 to US$153 across two participant views. With exposure to cost inflation among key QSR customers, these varied opinions underscore the importance of assessing multiple angles on Middleby’s growth potential.

    Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Middleby - why the stock might be worth as much as 17% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Middleby Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.