Gladstone Commercial Corporation Just Missed EPS By 53%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Explore Gladstone Commercial's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

As you might know, Gladstone Commercial Corporation (NASDAQ:GOOD) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Revenue of US$40m surpassed estimates by 3.2%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 53% below expectations at US$0.03 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Gladstone Commercial's five analysts is for revenues of US$157.3m in 2025. This reflects a modest 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 29% to US$0.24 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$153.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.22 in 2025. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a nice gain to earnings per share in particular.

See our latest analysis for Gladstone Commercial

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$15.60, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Gladstone Commercial analyst has a price target of US$16.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Gladstone Commercial's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.8% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.4% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Gladstone Commercial is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Gladstone Commercial's earnings potential next year. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Gladstone Commercial analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Gladstone Commercial (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.