Markets bet on whether CPI inflation will exceed 2.6% for the year ending in July 2025

Kalshi has reported 40,410 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 92% chance for "Above 2.6%", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 92% probability.

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.6% in the twelve months ending July 2025 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 353,180 transactions since it was first opened on June 12, 2025. There are 162,737 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 4,960,770 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

• Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 200923)
• Will average **gas prices** be above $3.10? (24h volume: 72428)
• Will the Fed cut rates 0 times? (24h volume: 50189)
• Will a representative of the Democratic party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025? (24h volume: 44712)
• Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2025? (24h volume: 40410)
• Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2025? (24h volume: 39694)
• Will Bruce Harrell win the election for the Mayor of Seattle in 2025? (24h volume: 27742)
• Will any Texas House Democrat be arrested before Sep 2025? (24h volume: 25949)
• Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? (24h volume: 25609)
• Will average **gas prices** be above $3.152? (24h volume: 23058)