Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation (TSE:4091), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 4.1% short of analyst estimates at JP¥315b, and statutory earnings of JP¥65.60 per share missed forecasts by 6.6%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nippon Sanso Holdings after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the six analysts covering Nippon Sanso Holdings are now predicting revenues of JP¥1.33t in 2026. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 23% to JP¥279. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.33t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥280 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Nippon Sanso Holdings

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥5,211, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Nippon Sanso Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥6,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥4,850. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Nippon Sanso Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nippon Sanso Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this to the 158 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Nippon Sanso Holdings is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥5,211, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Nippon Sanso Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Nippon Sanso Holdings .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.