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    Will PROG Holdings’ (PRG) Raised 2025 Guidance and Major Buybacks Shift Its Investment Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·07/31/2025 12:16:43
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    • PROG Holdings released its second-quarter 2025 results, reporting US$604.66 million in revenue and a net income increase to US$38.48 million from a year ago, alongside updated full-year guidance pointing to higher revenue and earnings ranges.
    • A notable aspect is the completion of a major share repurchase tranche, with the company buying back 899,800 shares in the past quarter, bringing total repurchases to more than half of shares outstanding since 2021.
    • We’ll explore how PROG Holdings’ raised 2025 earnings guidance improves the company’s investment narrative and future outlook.

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    PROG Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

    To be a shareholder in PROG Holdings, you need to believe in the company’s ability to drive earnings growth through its Buy Now, Pay Later (Four Technologies) platform and expanding digital partnerships, while managing credit and regulatory risks tied to its subprime customer base. The recent Q2 results and upward revision of 2025 guidance support confidence around near-term profitability, but do not materially alter the risk stemming from ongoing soft demand in core leasing categories, which remains the most immediate challenge.

    Of the recent company announcements, the raise in full-year 2025 earnings guidance is especially relevant, as it signals management’s increased confidence in both revenue and margin trends. This revision could help reinforce the near-term catalyst around improving profitability through digital initiatives and the continuing strength of the Four Technologies segment, even as long-term category demand questions persist.

    By contrast, investors will want to be aware of ongoing risks around customer credit quality and what could happen to margins if...

    Read the full narrative on PROG Holdings (it's free!)

    PROG Holdings' narrative projects $2.7 billion revenue and $141.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.5% yearly revenue growth and a $73.3 million earnings decrease from $214.7 million today.

    Uncover how PROG Holdings' forecasts yield a $38.57 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    PRG Community Fair Values as at Jul 2025
    PRG Community Fair Values as at Jul 2025

    Fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span from US$38.57 to US$9,999 across three individual perspectives. While many are optimistic about margin improvement in the Four Technologies segment, differing expectations about long-term demand will shape each investor’s outlook.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on PROG Holdings - why the stock might be worth just $38.57!

    Build Your Own PROG Holdings Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.