AGCO Corporation's (NYSE:AGCO) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.29 per share on 15th of September. This makes the dividend yield 3.4%, which will augment investor returns quite nicely.
We like to see robust dividend yields, but that doesn't matter if the payment isn't sustainable. AGCO is not generating a profit, but its free cash flows easily cover the dividend, leaving plenty for reinvestment in the business. This gives us some comfort about the level of the dividend payments.
Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to rise exponentially over the next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio will be 9.0%, which makes us pretty comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend.
View our latest analysis for AGCO
The company's dividend history has been marked by instability, with at least one cut in the last 10 years. Since 2015, the annual payment back then was $0.44, compared to the most recent full-year payment of $3.66. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24% a year over that time. Despite the rapid growth in the dividend over the past number of years, we have seen the payments go down the past as well, so that makes us cautious.
Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. In the last five years, AGCO's earnings per share has shrunk at approximately 2.5% per annum. If earnings continue declining, the company may have to make the difficult choice of reducing the dividend or even stopping it completely - the opposite of dividend growth. Earnings are forecast to grow over the next 12 months and if that happens we could still be a little bit cautious until it becomes a pattern.
Overall, we don't think this company makes a great dividend stock, even though the dividend wasn't cut this year. In the past, the payments have been unstable, but over the short term the dividend could be reliable, with the company generating enough cash to cover it. We would be a touch cautious of relying on this stock primarily for the dividend income.
It's important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. However, there are other things to consider for investors when analysing stock performance. For example, we've picked out 2 warning signs for AGCO that investors should know about before committing capital to this stock. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.