A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that the Trump administration's restrictions on immigration and heavy evictions will cause the growth rate of the US economy to drop by nearly a percentage point this year. Economists, including Pia Orrenius, analyzed that with a sharp decline in immigration across the southern border and the authorities' increased efforts to expel foreign-born laborers, the US GDP in 2025 may shrink by about 0.8 percentage points as a result. The researchers acknowledge that due to limited historical data, their findings are extremely uncertain. These economists have studied how five different migration reduction scenarios affect GDP and inflation. They discovered that the biggest impact of the new policy will be the economic growth rate, and inflation will rise slightly this year.

A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that the Trump administration's restrictions on immigration and heavy evictions will cause the growth rate of the US economy to drop by nearly a percentage point this year. Economists, including Pia Orrenius, analyzed that with a sharp decline in immigration across the southern border and the authorities' increased efforts to expel foreign-born laborers, the US GDP in 2025 may shrink by about 0.8 percentage points as a result. The researchers acknowledge that due to limited historical data, their findings are extremely uncertain. These economists have studied how five different migration reduction scenarios affect GDP and inflation. They discovered that the biggest impact of the new policy will be the economic growth rate, and inflation will rise slightly this year.