HSBC raises gold price expectations for this year and next two years: geopolitics compounded fiscal risk drives safe-haven demand

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the latest research report released by HSBC drastically raised the average price forecast for gold in 2025 from $3015 to $3,215 per ounce, and the forecast value for 2026 was also simultaneously raised to $3125, an increase of 7.2% over the previous cautious forecast of $2,915.

The international investment bank pointed out that the evolution of the global risk pattern and the rise in sovereign debt are the core logic that supports the long-term value of gold. Historical data shows that during a period of heightened economic uncertainty and heightened geopolitical games, the allocation value of gold as a safe-haven asset often increased significantly. Spot gold hit a historical peak of 3,500.05 US dollars/ounce at the end of April this year, up more than 40% from the beginning of 2023.

As of 21:30 Beijing time on July 1, international gold prices remained high at around 3,360 US dollars/ounce. The HSBC analyst team stressed in an in-depth report released on Tuesday that although the price of gold has broken through an important psychological threshold, the market fluctuation range may widen further. It is expected that the price of gold will operate in the range of 3100-3,600 US dollars for the rest of 2025. The target price for the end of 2025 is 3,175 US dollars, and it is expected to fall back to 3025 US dollars by the end of 2026. The agency specifically pointed out that even with a technical correction in gold prices, maintaining a price center above $3,000 has substantially strengthened the strategic position of gold as an asset safe haven and portfolio stabilizer.

The report further analyzed that there is a significant correlation between the gold price trend and the central bank's gold buying behavior: when the price of gold breaks through 3,300 US dollars, the pace at which central banks increase their gold holdings may slow down; if it falls back to around 3,000 US dollars, it may trigger a new wave of reserve asset allocation. In the field of physical consumption, the price transmission effect is more direct. If international gold prices continue to rise to 3,500 US dollars, major gold consumers represented by India and China may face shrinking demand pressure, and retail markets such as jewelry and investment gold bars may experience volume-price divergence.

Currently, the market is closely watching US policy trends: Senate Republicans are still pushing for the tax reform bill proposed during the Trump administration, despite differences within the party over the $3.3 trillion debt expansion. Treasury Secretary Bezent recently warned that the July 9 tariff adjustment window is approaching and may increase trade frictions. These policy variables are intertwined with geopolitical risks, and may continue to inject uncertainty into the gold market. The HSBC research team believes that under a game of multiple macroeconomic factors, the monetary and commodity properties of gold will show a dynamic balance, and investors should continue to pay attention to real interest rate trends, fluctuations in the US dollar index, and changes in geopolitical risk premiums.