Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) After Its Full-Year Results

Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 20% over the past week following NIKE, Inc.'s (NYSE:NKE) latest yearly results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$46b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.16. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, NIKE's 33 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$45.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 20% to US$1.74 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$45.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.93 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for NIKE

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$75.33, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NIKE at US$120 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$38.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the NIKE's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.2% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.2% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.8% per year. It's pretty clear that NIKE's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that NIKE's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for NIKE going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for NIKE that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.