Vaxart, Inc. (NASDAQ:VXRT) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 34% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 13% in the last twelve months.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, Vaxart may still look like a strong buying opportunity at present with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 3x, considering almost half of all companies in the Biotechs industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 8.2x and even P/S higher than 53x aren't out of the ordinary. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/S.
See our latest analysis for Vaxart
Vaxart could be doing better as it's been growing revenue less than most other companies lately. It seems that many are expecting the uninspiring revenue performance to persist, which has repressed the growth of the P/S ratio. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping revenue doesn't get any worse and that you could pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Keen to find out how analysts think Vaxart's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.In order to justify its P/S ratio, Vaxart would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the industry.
If we review the last year of revenue growth, we see the company's revenues grew exponentially. Spectacularly, three year revenue growth has also set the world alight, thanks to the last 12 months of incredible growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.
Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to slump, contracting by 24% per year during the coming three years according to the three analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the broader industry is forecast to expand by 112% per year, which paints a poor picture.
With this in consideration, we find it intriguing that Vaxart's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. However, shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
Vaxart's recent share price jump still sees fails to bring its P/S alongside the industry median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
It's clear to see that Vaxart maintains its low P/S on the weakness of its forecast for sliding revenue, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Vaxart you should be aware of, and 2 of them make us uncomfortable.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.