Are the voices of Iran's political blockade of Hormuz getting louder and louder, and Brent crude oil is rushing towards $100?

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to media reports citing information revealed by people familiar with the matter, a senior Iranian lawmaker said on Thursday that Iran can fight back against the enemy by closing the Strait of Hormuz. However, another lawmaker said that this measure affecting the global economy will only be taken when Tehran's key interests are threatened. For politicians in Iran's own country, it can be said that political voices calling for a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are getting louder and louder. If the blockade comes true, the international crude oil benchmark — the price of Brent crude oil may break through the $100 mark, and may even rush to the oil price range predicted by J.P. Morgan Chase in the most pessimistic geopolitical situation — 120 US dollars to 130 US dollars.

According to information, Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to further sanctions pressure from Western countries or pressure on the nuclear issue. Shipping sources said on Wednesday that some large merchant ships or oil/liquefied natural gas carriers have begun to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

According to information revealed by people familiar with the matter, Behnam Saeedi (Behnam Saeedi), a member of the National Security Committee of the Iranian Parliament, told the semi-official Iranian Mehr News Agency (Mehr): “Iran has many ways to respond to the enemy, and will choose the appropriate options according to the situation. Closing the Strait of Hormuz is one potentially significant option.”

Shortly after, Meher News Agency quoted another member of parliament, Ali Yazdikhah (Ali Yazdikhah) as reporting that as long as Iran's core national interests are not at risk, Iran will continue to allow free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby bays.

However, Yazdikha added: “If the US officially and actually sends troops to support the Zionists (Israel) in the war, then from the perspective of putting pressure on the US and Western countries, Iran has a legal right to hinder the smooth passage of its oil and liquefied natural gas trade straits.”

US President Donald Trump is still committed to making outsiders speculate whether the US will join Israel's bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, rather than directly revealing the US military's next move. This move is also viewed by some military experts as the US negotiation window on Iran's nuclear issue has not yet closed.

Yazdiha added that the reason Tehran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz so far is because almost all Middle Eastern countries and even many other countries have greatly benefited from it.

“Preferably no country supports Israel against Iran. Iran's enemies know very well that we have dozens of ways to make the Strait of Hormuz unsafe, and this option really works for us.”

If the Iran-Israel conflict situation does not escalate significantly, the possibility of a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz is still low

The Strait of Hormuz is located between Oman and Iran, and is the core export channel for Gulf oil producers and major natural gas producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iraq, and Kuwait.

About 25% of the world's average daily oil consumption — about 18 million barrels — is transported via the Strait of Hormuz, which is only about 33 km (21 miles) wide at its narrowest point.

According to Clarkson's statistics, 11% of the world's shipping trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz under Iran's jurisdiction, including 34% of marine crude oil exports, 30% of liquefied petroleum gas exports, 20% of liquefied natural gas, 18% of chemical trade, 7% of automobile trade, 3% of global container trade, and 2% of dry bulk goods.

However, Wall Street analysts generally say that although Iran continues to threaten to block the Strait of Hormuz, the complete closure of the strait is still a low-probability event. Under the benchmark scenario, the military conflict in the Middle East will not necessarily disrupt oil flows, but the scenario of declining Iranian oil exports is seen as a more likely direction of development.

Throughout history, Iran did have an impact on the Strait of Hormuz during the war, and “shouted” and threatened to block it many times, yet it has not carried out a complete, continuous, and comprehensive blockade of the strait in the true sense of the word. Therefore, according to analysts, if the Iran-Israel conflict situation does not escalate significantly, the possibility of a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz is still low. The obvious escalation here mainly indicates that the US officially participated in the attack on Iran, and in particular, that the US threw a “giant drill bomb” through B-52 bombers to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and then officially participate in this conflict.

According to media reports, former Iranian economy minister Ehsan Khandouzi posted a statement on social media X requiring oil tankers and liquefied natural gas carriers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz only if they obtain permission from Iran, adding that this policy should be implemented “for 100 days from Wednesday.” “If implemented in a timely manner, this policy is decisive. Any delay in implementation means a continuation of the war,” Khandouzi wrote in a Tuesday post. He also said, “The battle involving Trump must end through a combination of economic and security measures.”

Is the specter of the $130 oil price reappearing?

Therefore, the most critical question about the Strait of Hormuz is whether the US will officially intervene in the military conflict between Iran and Israel. If officially intervened, it is almost certain that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will be completely blocked and that shipping in the Strait will be completely interrupted, and the global energy market will fall into severe turmoil.

According to J.P. Morgan's analysis, the reason Iran has never blocked the Strait of Hormuz is because the cost of the blockade is too high for Iran itself. Not only will it violate international standards, but it will also directly threaten the economic interests of the Gulf countries and may isolate Iran from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

However, the J.P. Morgan Chase report further indicates that once the US participates, the conflict escalates to an all-out war in the Middle East, this “red line” may be broken. J.P. Morgan predicts that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices may soar to the 120-130 US dollar range. On Thursday, as rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East threatened energy supply expectations in this key region, Brent crude futures continued to rise, breaking through $78 per barrel, to a five-month high.

The economic and strategic risks brought about by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz can be described as very high. Iran is well aware of its advantages and disadvantages. This is also the core logic that Iran has not blocked the strait so far. Iran's economy can be described as being extremely dependent on oil exports. Oil exported through the “dark fleet” that evades Western sanctions also needs to pass through Hormuz. Once blocked, it will seriously damage Iran's already fragile economic lifeblood.