Goldman Sachs: Lowered the forecast for the US recession in the next 12 months to 30%

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs Group lowered the US economic recession probability forecast for the next 12 months from 35% to 30%, mainly based on the easing of trade tension after a new round of negotiations between China and the US. Specific developments include: 1) the tariff rate framework agreement; 2) China lifted restrictions on rare earth exports; and 3) the restoration of channels for Chinese students to study in the US.

The bank pointed out that financial conditions have basically returned to pre-tariff levels, and trade policy uncertainty has eased slightly. Although inflation data is still limited, Goldman Sachs believes the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is more moderate than initially feared.

Based on the improved outlook, Goldman Sachs also raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1% to 1.25%, and expected the peak unemployment rate to be controlled at 4.4%.