On Thursday, J.P. Morgan downplayed geopolitical concerns and maintained the basic forecast for oil prices in the range of $60 to $65 for the rest of 2025. The price of oil is expected to be $60 in 2026, but said that some worst-case scenarios could cause oil prices to soar to double that level. According to J.P. Morgan Chase, the geopolitical risk premium is at least partially reflected in current oil prices. The current oil price is slightly below $70, which is about 4 US dollars higher than the estimated fair value of 66 US dollars in June. However, if some worst-case scenario occurs, where Iran's oil exports fall by 2.1 million barrels per day, the impact on supply could expand. Attention is focused on the risk that the wider Middle East conflict could lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or trigger a retaliatory reaction from the region's major oil producers. “Under these serious consequences, we estimate that oil prices may soar to the $120-130 per barrel range.”

On Thursday, J.P. Morgan downplayed geopolitical concerns and maintained the basic forecast for oil prices in the range of $60 to $65 for the rest of 2025. The price of oil is expected to be $60 in 2026, but said that some worst-case scenarios could cause oil prices to soar to double that level. According to J.P. Morgan Chase, the geopolitical risk premium is at least partially reflected in current oil prices. The current oil price is slightly below $70, which is about 4 US dollars higher than the estimated fair value of 66 US dollars in June. However, if some worst-case scenario occurs, where Iran's oil exports fall by 2.1 million barrels per day, the impact on supply could expand. Attention is focused on the risk that the wider Middle East conflict could lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or trigger a retaliatory reaction from the region's major oil producers. “Under these serious consequences, we estimate that oil prices may soar to the $120-130 per barrel range.”