Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (NSE:MAZDOCK) Fell Short of Analyst Expectations: Here's What You Need To Know

As you might know, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (NSE:MAZDOCK) last week released its latest yearly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Earnings fell badly short of analyst estimates, with ₹114b revenues missing by 12%, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of ₹59.83 falling short of forecasts by some -14%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders' three analysts is for revenues of ₹130.5b in 2026. This would reflect a meaningful 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 13% to ₹67.82. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹150.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹75.75 in 2026. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders' prospects following the latest results, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

Check out our latest analysis for Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 22% to ₹3,068, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹3,858 and the most bearish at ₹2,318 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Compare this to the 21 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.