Is breaking through $110,000 just a “prelude to a bull market”? The US debt storm has swept through the market, and capital is headed for the “new safe haven king” Bitcoin

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the transaction price of Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, broke through the major threshold of 110,000 US dollars for the first time, and has now hovered around 111,000 US dollars. As the scale of purchases of Bitcoin ETFs by institutional investors and the safe-haven investment demand for Bitcoin itself continues to rise at a time when the “selling off of US assets” sentiment heats up sharply due to tariffs and immigration restrictions led by the Trump administration. Coupled with positive developments in US stablecoin legislation, traders are becoming more and more optimistic about the future of this cryptocurrency's originator.

Furthermore, as far as Bitcoin's bullish sentiment is concerned, the financial market is increasingly concerned about the prospect of a surge in the US government's fiscal deficit under Trump's stewardship, and the wave of Japanese treasury bond sell-offs spread to the world after the Bank of Japan continued to push forward quantitative austerity policies, causing global capital to set off an extreme storm of large-scale sell-offs of US debt. This is also the core logic behind Bitcoin's recent surge in the title of “new safe-haven asset” and “new safe haven king.”

How to mitigate the so-called “US debt sell-off storm,” George Saravelos, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that there are currently two solutions: one is to make “major revisions” to Trump's huge tax cuts and implement stricter fiscal policies (meaning higher taxes, which may even lead to a recession in the US economy); the second is to depreciate the dollar and increase the appeal of US debt to foreign buyers.

Saravelos further suggested that US fiscal risks have intensified under the joint catalytic catalyst of Trump's tax cuts and the US 3A rating. One of the most representative signs of market sell-off is the “decoupling” between US bond yields and the yen exchange rate. He pointed out that although US bond yields continue to rise, the yen continues to appreciate, which may mean that foreign investors are gradually withdrawing from the US Treasury bond market.

Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs's trading department, said that the sharp rise in US bond yields has put pressure on global risk assets, and the crisis may eventually evolve into a depreciation of the dollar and the full rise of safe-haven assets — gold and cryptocurrencies.

As far as Bitcoin's trend is concerned, driven by stronger global buying forces, Bitcoin is currently forming a strong upward trend. The price is approaching an all-time high. It has now broken through the key resistance level of 110,000 US dollars, further impacting the new historical high. Standard Chartered Bank (Standard Chartered) is expected to break through 120,000 US dollars. Trump may even break the 500,000 dollar mark before leaving office in 2029. PropNotes, a strategy agency based on the Seeking Alpha platform, is bullish to 150,000 US dollars for the next point .

Three key indicators give a positive signal of a “Bitcoin bull market”

The mean deviation indicator shows room for growth: The customized “mean deviation detector” (MDD) shows that Bitcoin still has room to reach its extreme historical high and has not yet entered the extreme overbought region. This indicator reading supports that Bitcoin still has room for a further sharp rise.

Bollinger band expansion suggests a breakthrough: the Bollinger band is clearly widening, indicating increased market volatility. This expansion of volatility usually indicates the imminent arrival of a major market, implying that Bitcoin is likely to continue to break through $110,000 upward, opening a new round of rising prices that have repeatedly reached new highs. The technical pattern targets 150,000 US dollars.

RSI Cautious Signals and Risk Reward: Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) occasionally shows warning signs of being overbought, the overall risk/reward is still attractive. PropNotes suggests setting a stop-loss level of around $75,000 when implementing a Bitcoin long strategy to control the downside risk of return on investment.

The price of Bitcoin has continued to rise recently, and has now stabilized at a record high of slightly above $110,000. The trend shows a series of rising highs and lows, showing that bulls dominate, and the overall upward trend is stable and obvious. Long-term moving averages have turned upward one after another, further confirming the strong and healthy price trend. It is worth noting that in the process of approaching the previous high, Bitcoin experienced a short period of consolidation at a high level. This consolidation of momentum did not significantly reduce its upward momentum; on the contrary, it laid the foundation for subsequent breakthroughs. Such a solid technical pattern shows that the probability of Bitcoin reaching new highs over and over again is rising.

Generally speaking, once the currency price successfully breaks through the previous historical peak, the technical side will confirm a new breakthrough trend, which may attract more momentum buying and venture speculation capital to pour into the market. Overall, Bitcoin's price structure and trend strength support the judgment that the future market will be bullish. The market is at a critical moment, and investors need to pay close attention to whether there can be an effective upward breakthrough.

A custom Mean Deviation Detector (Mean Deviation Detector) can measure the extent to which Bitcoin's price deviates from the historical average. The indicator's current readings suggest that even after this round of sharp increases, Bitcoin still has some room to reach historical extremes. In other words, Bitcoin has yet to reach the extreme overbought levels seen in previous cycles.

The original design of this indicator is to capture the extent of price anomalies when it deviates from the long-term average, so as to identify whether the market is overheated. According to current detectors, although the price of Bitcoin is above the long-term average, it has not “deviated too far” to a worrying point. This means that from a statistical point of view, the current rise is still within the normal range and has not reached the critical point of excessive extension or bubble formation. This signal certainly supports the view that the Bitcoin market will continue to strengthen in the future: since the price has not yet entered an extremely bullish zone, the upward trend is likely to continue without a sharp correction. Overall, the average deviation indicator conveys a positive bullish message, indicating that Bitcoin has potential for further upward movement, providing strong support for bullish positions.

Another technical indicator worth watching is Bollinger Bands. Recently, Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands began to expand significantly — the upper and lower tracks quickly widen the distance, reflecting increased price volatility. Generally speaking, a Bollinger band suddenly widens after a period of narrowing and consolidation, which often indicates that the market is about to experience large-scale fluctuations or a bullish trend. The current expansion of the Bollinger Bands coincides with the Bitcoin price breaking through an important resistance zone, which provides a clue to determine the future direction of the market.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin has been running near the upper Bollinger band for many days, and the pattern of the Bollinger band opening outward suggests that a fierce contest is about to occur when it is long and short. According to historical experience, when Bollinger Bands expand rapidly, prices tend to break through in the direction of the original trend. In the case of Bitcoin, due to too many overall trends, a wider Bollinger band is more likely to indicate an upward breakthrough.

In other words, with the release of volatility, once the $110,000 level is effectively broken through, the bulls are expected to accelerate, with an upward target of around $150,000. This target is roughly $40,000 higher than the previous all-time high, and if achieved, it will mark a new milestone. From a technical point of view, the signs of an explosion of volatility revealed by Bollinger Bands provide a strong basis for Bitcoin to launch a new major upward wave.

Of course, we also need to be wary of the risks associated with Bollinger band expansion — increased volatility means increased price fluctuations, and both ups and downs are likely to be more intense. Therefore, while looking forward to breaking through the market, investors should also be mentally prepared to deal with severe shocks. Overall, however, the information conveyed by the Bollinger Bands indicator is positive: market energy is accumulating, and once the direction of breakout is clear, the rise may be quite impressive.

While most technical signals are bullish, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) gives some mixed warning signals worth watching for. Currently, Bitcoin's daily RSI value has risen to an area close to above 70, which is generally regarded as an overbought level. This indicates that compared to the previous period, prices have increased significantly due to strong buying, and there is demand for a certain correction to be absorbed in the short term. Judging from the momentum RSI, the RSI indicator is hovering at a high level, showing that as prices rise, although the bulls are strong, they are beginning to show signs of overheating.

More importantly, the RSI may be showing signs of a bearish divergence: that is, while the price of Bitcoin continues to reach new highs, the RSI has failed to rise at the same time; instead, it is slightly below the previous peak. This divergence of weak price indicators often indicates that upward momentum is weakening, and it is worth being wary of investors. Historically, RSI divergence has often preceded price peaks, and is a typical leading indicator. As a result, the current RSI is sending a signal of “cautious optimism” — not an immediate bearish reversal, but a reminder not to be overly optimistic.

It should be emphasized that RSI's signal of overbought or divergence does not mean that the price will inevitably fall, but rather indicates that the market may enter a brief recuperation or fluctuation. In strong markets, RSI can remain in the overbought region for a long time while prices continue to rise. However, in combination with Bitcoin currently approaching its previous high, these warning signals from RSI indicate that it is not surprising if there is a “minor pullback in the bull market” in the short term.

Based on the above technical analysis, the current overall trend of Bitcoin shows that bulls are dominant. The resonance of several key technical indicators provides a basis for bullishness: the mean deviation detector shows that Bitcoin still has room to rise, Bollinger band expansion indicates a possible continuous breakthrough, and the price trend itself is strong. With the current Bitcoin transaction price stable at around $110,000, based on all of the above technical indicators, PropNotes, a strategy agency based on the Seeking Alpha platform, expects the potential target price for the next phase to be around $150,000.

The US dollar may fall into a bear market, and Bitcoin and gold will rise strongly?

Although the US dollar index rebounded after the tense trade situation between China and the US eased, more and more Wall Street investment institutions said that this rebound was only short-lived, and they all emphasized that a “dollar bear market” that is likely to last for many years has just begun. The trigger was the Trump administration's “US economic transformation actions” that disrupted the global trading system in a chaotic and disorderly manner. In particular, the Trump administration's erratic tariff measures have caused large-scale financial market turmoil, and investors' confidence in dollar assets has been irreversibly shaken, leading to the gradual collapse of the “American exception theory.”

Since this year, Wall Street investment institutions and foreign exchange traders have continued to be bearish on the US dollar. Strategists at J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank said that the US dollar will continue to weaken, and foreign exchange options traders' pessimism about the dollar's decline is the most pessimistic position in five years. Although the easing of trade tension between China and the US last week temporarily boosted the US dollar index, investors are generally wary of re-holding the dollar.

The options market's bets on the dollar's decline over the next year are currently at their highest level since 2020. These long-term options are generally operated by fund managers rather than short-term speculators, which reinforces the view that exposure to the US dollar is being re-evaluated more broadly. Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global currency at Goldman Sachs Group, said this week: “American exceptionalism is gradually being eroded, and these initiatives will continue for much longer.”

Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs's trading department, believes that the financial market may fall into a “reflex cycle” surrounding the budget. If the level of US fiscal spending continues and the US economy remains resilient, the pressure will focus on two key “exhaust valves”: long-term interest rates (not directly controlled by the Federal Reserve) and the dollar.

According to Privorotsky, the solution has three paths: large-scale cuts in government spending, such as halting tax cuts (almost impossible in politics); financial suppression, that is, controlling the yield curve through monetary policy (similar to Japan, but will destroy the independence of the Federal Reserve); and open intervention by the Federal Reserve or the Treasury in the US dollar (which may trigger a currency war and lead to the complete collapse of the dollar's international monetary logic).

The above options are extremely difficult from the Trump administration's implementation level, and they don't support a stronger dollar, so this explains why funds are pouring into two types of safe-haven assets: gold and cryptocurrencies.

Standard Chartered Bank, which accurately predicted the Bitcoin trend in 2024, shook its flag again: Q2 broke 120,000 US dollars and hit 200,000 US dollars by the end of the year

Recently, many analysts said that if the US dollar exchange rate continues to depreciate due to the continued decline in global investors' confidence in holding US dollar assets, Bitcoin can continue to be used as a “safe haven trading asset” along with gold.

Standard Chartered Bank (Standard Chartered), which can be described as accurately predicting Bitcoin's unprecedented bull market curve in 2024, is once again shouting for Bitcoin. The agency predicts that the price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) may break through the $120,000 mark in the second quarter and hit a record high of $200,000 by the end of 2025. It also predicts that Bitcoin will soar to $500,000 before Trump officially leaves office in 2029.

Last year, Standard Chartered made a long-term bet that the price of Bitcoin would break through the super mark of 100,000 US dollars by the end of 2024, and Bitcoin eventually broke through 100,000 US dollars in December and reached the highest point in history at the time. Standard Chartered Bank also said that the “giant whales” in the coin industry (that is, large coin holders) are significantly increasing their Bitcoin holdings.

Strategy (MSTR.US)'s Bitcoin purchases, for example, also contributed to this round of growth. Up to now, it has accumulated over 60 billion US dollars worth of Bitcoin. The company submitted documents again on Thursday and plans to further increase its Bitcoin position by issuing 10% perpetual preferred shares of up to $2.1 billion. Some analysts pointed out that this move shows the firm confidence of the institution in Bitcoin.

Strategy (previously known as MicroStrategy), founded and led by Michael Saylor (Michael Saylor), which has the title of “Bitcoin Holder” and “Bitcoin Shadow Stock” (previously known as MicroStrategy), has resolutely chosen to buy Bitcoin when Bitcoin prices have plummeted several times in recent years, informing fans around the world that Strategy strives to stabilize the Bitcoin price trend, and that the company has strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin, and that more and more crypto-focused investment institutions are following Strategy to increase bitcoins The pace of the coin.

Twenty One Capital, a new company launched by Tether, SoftBank, and Cantor Fitzgerald, will also follow Strategy's business model to create a “corporate treasury (treasury)” with Bitcoin as its core asset. A subsidiary of Strive Enterprises, co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, is merging with Nasdaq listed company Asset Entities Inc., with the same goal of establishing a Bitcoin reserve enterprise. Julia Zhou, COO of Caladan crypto market maker, said: “Unlike previous bull markets, this round of growth was not driven solely by market sentiment, but was based on a continuous and quantifiable mismatch between supply and demand.”