News Flash: 3 Analysts Think OFX Group Limited (ASX:OFX) Earnings Are Under Threat

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for OFX Group Limited (ASX:OFX), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

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Following the downgrade, the consensus from three analysts covering OFX Group is for revenues of AU$226m in 2026, implying a noticeable 3.0% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to nosedive 72% to AU$0.03 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$250m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.14 in 2026. From this we can that analyst sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest update, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious decline to earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for OFX Group

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 49% to AU$1.06.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the OFX Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.0% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 7.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that OFX Group's revenues are expected to shrink slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for OFX Group. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to outperform the wider market. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. With a serious cut to this year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of OFX Group.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple OFX Group analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.